'Guillotine swinging': GOP strategists privately worried about key Senate race

30 July

North Carolina then-Gov. Roy Cooper in Wilmington, North Carolina on October 24, 2024 (Darwin Brandis/ Shutterstock.com)

During a late July appearance on MSNBC, Never Trump conservative and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich argued that if Sen. Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) hadn't decided against seeking reelection, former Gov. Roy Cooper would have stayed out of North Carolina's 2026 U.S. Senate race. Cooper, according to Kasich, didn't want to risk going up against Tillis in the general election if the conservative senator became the nominee.

But with President Donald Trump threatening to back an aggressive GOP primary challenge against Tillis is for opposing his "big, beautiful bill," Tillis decided against running for another term. And centrist Cooper, having entered the race, is raising a lot of money. Politico, on July 29, reported that Cooper has raised a "record-breaking" sum of "$3.4 million in the first 24 hours of his Senate campaign."

Republicans are responding to the two-term ex-North Carolina governor by reciting anti-Cooper talking points. But in an article published on July 30, Politico's Elena Schneider reports that Republican strategists and organizers are privately worried that if Cooper wins the Democratic nomination, he has a good shot at flipping a GOP-held Senate seat in a crucial swing state.

"Democrats, locked out of power at every level in Washington, see North Carolina as their top offensive target as they make a longshot play to regain control over the Senate while fighting to reclaim the House," Schneider explains. "The race instantly became more competitive when Cooper, Democrats' top recruit, entered the race this week with some serious advantages, having won the state six times as governor and attorney general. The early contours of the race, upended by Sen. Thom Tillis' decision to not run for reelection last month, are coming into focus as the campaigns preview their messages and attacks in digital ads."

If Cooper is the nominee, he will likely be up against Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley — who Trump endorsed — in the general election. And the former North Carolina governor is aggressively campaigning against the draconian Medicaid cuts in Trump's "big, beautiful bill."

A GOP strategist, interviewed on condition of anonymity, told Politico, "(Cooper) has the benefit of being, in the eyes of a lot of swing voters, the good ole boy from Rocky Mount, (North Carolina), who they've known for 30 years. And so far, nobody's been able to effectively message against that on the Republican side."

Schneider reports, "Republicans must also push back on Tillis' own concerns that 'the Medicaid cuts are a guillotine swinging over Republican necks right now,' the strategist continued — which 'if they end up being half as bad as Tillis says, that could be enough for Cooper to get over the finish line.' Tillis denounced Trump’s megabill before its passage, attacking Republicans for 'betray(ing) the promise Donald Trump made' to voters and warning that 660,000 North Carolinians could lose their healthcare. Tillis voted against it, prompting Trump to threaten Tillis with a primary challenge. The next day, Tillis announced he wouldn't run for reelection. That's an opening Democrats are looking to exploit. Cooper, along with the Republican-controlled legislature, expanded Medicaid in 2023."

A North Carolina-based GOP operative, also interviewed on condition of anonymity, told Politico that Trump and the RNC "may give Whatley enough money to turn Cooper into a generic Democrat."

"But nobody knows who Whatley is either," the operative added. "It's all going to come down to the money, and who can define who first."

Read Elena Schneider's full report for Politico at this link.

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