This 'horrendous number' may be the key predictor of major GOP defeat in midterms: analyst

U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) looks on during an interview with Reuters, during his visit to Panama, in Panama City, Panama, August 28, 2025. REUTERS

Political pundit and consultant Matthew Dowd said the media’s “herd mentality” is promoting the feeling that President Donald Trump’s tactics of distraction and disruption are working to fool the public into putting Trump in a better light than he deserves.

But that’s not the case, no matter how many distractions Trump tosses the press these days.

“Here are a half dozen reasons why I believe that Republicans are in a worse position in the political environment than they were in the 2018 elections when Democratic candidates did exceedingly well when the votes were all counted,” said Dowd.

First of all, Trump’s job approval today is as bad (and in ways worse) than it was in 2018 when Democrats sank his Republican Congress, according to Dowd. On Election Day in 2018, Trump had a net disapproval rating of -9. His net approval rating today is -14 — and a President’s job approval rating is the single greatest determinant of likely election results in both midterms and presidential election.

Democratic candidates today also have a major enthusiasm advantage over Republicans, said Dowd. And in midterms the enthusiasm advantage nearly always results in greater turnout advantage on election day.

And then there’s the phenomenon of swing and independent voters, who Dowd says have turned overwhelmingly against Trump, according to polls.

“His approval rating among independent voters is a net -30. A horrendous number,” said Dowd.

Compare that to Trump’s approval rating among independents in 2018, the year Republicans got walloped: net -20. And for the last few months, Dowd adds that Democrats have led in nearly every poll on the generic ballot question of who voters would choose in an election. This, also, is very similar to what happened in the run-up to the 2018 mid-terms.

Republicans’ rotten polls combine with the fact that there have been more than 40 special elections since the November 2024 general election, and in those results Democrats over-performed by an average of 15 percent. If they didn’t trounce their Republican opponent, it was likely because they were running in a deep-red district — and even then, the Democrat in that race nabbed a higher vote than should have been expected in such a district.

“In the special elections in 2017, Democrats over-performed by an average of 10 percent,” Dowd said, adding that in 2022, there was no over-performance by either political party in special elections, and thus the following Election Day delivered “a mix of results.”

Another bad sign for Trump: In 2018 the president had a low job approval rating overall, but his approval on the economy was actually +5, said Dowd — even among independent voters. And he still lost Congress.

“Today, the economy is the No. 1 issue, and Trump has a net disapproval of -16,” said Dowd. “And among independent voters it is a net disapproval of -29. Again, horrendous numbers for an incumbent Republican Party.”

At this point, Dowd said the only thing Republicans have going for them are their efforts to steal the election by gerrymandering extra House seats, which he argued is no kind of guarantee with digits like these pouring out of surveys.

Read Matthew Dowd's substack at this link.

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