Republicans are gaining ground in key Senate races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin: report

05 October 2022

Democrats are hoping to increase their narrow majority in the U.S. Senate by flipping GOP-held seats in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and other states. Earlier this year, former President Donald Trump was reportedly feeling very pessimistic about Dr. Mehmet Oz’s Senate campaign in Pennsylvania, as poll after poll was showing his Democratic challenger, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, with double-digit leads. But recent polls, according to Politico reporters Holly Otterbein and Natalie Allison, are showing Republicans gaining ground in the Pennsylvania and Wisconsin races.

“After a grueling summer, Republicans are finally making headway in protecting their top two firewalls in the race for the Senate,” Otterbein and Allison report in an article published by Politico on October 5. “Holding onto at least one of the GOP-held seats in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — ideally both — is critical if the party wants to flip the Senate. But Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson and Pennsylvania Republican Senate nominee Mehmet Oz began the general election with poor favorability ratings and a spending disadvantage on TV.

The reporters continue, “By contrast, the Democratic candidates, Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes and Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, had a great summer…. Both men were leading in polls. In the last month, however, the momentum has shifted: Johnson has retaken the lead in polling, and though Oz is still behind Fetterman, he has narrowed the gap in election surveys.”

Polls released in late September found Oz trailing Fetterman by 4 percent (Fox News), 3 percent (Fox 29 Philadelphia/InsiderAdvantage) or 6 percent (USA Today/Suffolk University). The most encouraging poll for Oz’s campaign was a The Hill/Emerson College poll that showed Fetterman ahead of Oz by only 2 percent.

“A Franklin & Marshall College poll showed Fetterman ahead by 13 percentage points in August; this month, the same organization put Fetterman in the lead by 3 points,” Otterbein and Allison observe. “But Oz has not been in first place in a single released poll, and some Republicans privately acknowledge that it is an open question whether there’s enough time left in the cycle for the celebrity doctor to catch up to Fetterman, despite things moving in the right direction for him.”

Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, late September polls showed Johnson ahead of Barnes by 5 percent (Fox News and Fabrizio/Anzalone) or 2 percent (Data for Progress).

The Johnson campaign’s anti-Barnes attack ads appear to be working. Republicans have accused Barnes of wanting to “defund the police” even though Barnes is emphatically against that.

“Barnes has said repeatedly that he does not support defunding the police, and Democrats argue that some of the advertising has crossed a line,” Otterbein and Allison report. “One mailer by the Wisconsin GOP used a filter that darkened the face of Barnes, who would be the state’s first Black senator if elected.”

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