CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten delivered information on who may be gaining momentum as Republicans and Democrats move into an off-year election two weeks from today and midterms one year and two weeks away.
“Some new polling just out was really eye-popping,” said CNN anchor John Berman.
“It was shocking to me, John, and it comes down to party identification,” Enten agreed. “Do you identify as a Democrat or as a Republican? And traditionally speaking, this is a metric that has been quite telling of elections.”
Back in the first quarter of 2025, Gallup had party ID as a tie between the two parties, while Quinnipiac had Republicans ahead by one point.
“Look at how much Democrats have gained on this metric,” Enten said, explaining that Gallup now identified Dems as “ahead by seven points,” while Quinnipiac puts Democrats ahead by three.
“You know, last year, going into the 2024 presidential election, that was the rare time in which Republicans actually held a lead in Gallup's party I.D. measure,” said Enten. “That Republican lead is no more. Adios, amigos. Eliminated.”
Enten said Democrats are doing considerably better than they did back in the 2022 midterm cycle.
“Four points was a good year for Democrats in 2018 and they’re actually doing better than that,” Enten said. “… One point was a bad year for Democrats in 2022. When the GOP gains House seats, … Democrats were ahead by only a point. When the Dems gained House seats, [they] were ahead by eight points. Democrats are up by seven right now. If this seven-point lead holds in the next year and averages out next year in 2026, there is no historical precedent for Republicans actually getting House seats.”