'History ain’t exactly kind': CNN data guru warns Republicans on shutdown blame

President Donald Trump with Sen. John Thune and First Lady Melania Trump on January 8, 2025 (Office of Senator John Thune/Wikimedia Commons)

CNN analyst Harry Enten said polls show the public is assigning blame for the government shutdown this week square on the shoulders of the party in control of Congress.

“A lot of Republicans out there right now are strutting around thinking they’re cock of the walk,” Enten said, but the confidence is unjustified.

“Who do Americans blame more? They blame Republicans,” said Enten, studying an aggregate of recent polls. “The New York times by seven points they blame Republicans in Congress and Donald Trump. In the Marist [poll] the blame [President Donald] Trump and Republicans by 12 points. How about Washington Post? By a 17-point margin.”

“When you look at the data, what you're actually seeing is that more Americans are blaming Republicans than Democrats, which I think really goes against the conventional wisdom,” Enten said.

People surveyed appear to be siding with Democratic minority members of Congress, even in the face of government employees being furloughed and the Trump administration promising to permanently fire many employees during the shutdown, ended explained.

“We can go back over time, and this is actually a pretty familiar story,” Enten told CNN “NewsCentral” anchor Sara Sidner. “What are we talking about here? Blame more at the start of shutdowns in 1995 and 1996: They blamed the Republicans more by 16 points. In 2013 they blamed the Republicans more by ten points. In 2018 and 2019, they blamed the Republicans more by 14 points. And right now, on the average poll, you see that the American public are again blaming Republicans more by 12 points than Democrats. So this actually lines up with what we've seen historically.”

Enten added that history also suggests blame was likely to stay with Trump and Republicans as the shutdown wore on and more and more Americans noticed the furloughs and government dereliction of duties.

“Historically speaking … whoever gets the blame at the start of the shutdown has ended up being the ones who get the blame at the end of the shutdown,” Enten said. “In 1995 and 1996 it was the GOP and GOP. In 2013: GOP, GOP. In 2018: GOP, GOP. Look, it's early days yet. Maybe history will be bucked in this particular situation, but historically speaking, if you're being blamed at the start of a shutdown, you're getting blamed at the end of it. … History ain't exactly too kind to those who are blamed at the start of shutdowns.”

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