Redacted summary reveals how the FBI 'missed the forrest for the trees' on Jan. 6

An 2020 analysis by the Federal Bureau of Investigation's (FBI) Intelligence Council, Counterterrorism Division, and Boston Field Office, according to an exclusive NBC News report, warned "[Domestic Violent Extremists] are very willing to take action, but their capabilities to do so remain low, largely due to disorganization and law enforcement pressure."

Per NBC, in addition to outlining extremist's willingness to act, the 2020 summary also noted a "'less likely' scenario was that domestic violent extremist groups would be 'very capable, but they have low willingness to carry out near-term attacks in response to election dispute,' emphasizing "the 'least likely' scenario was that domestic violent extremist groups would 'have low willingness to take action in response to a disputed election result, and those who are interested lack that capacity to carry out anything beyond' a simple attack."

The news outlet obtained a redacted version of the report titled, "Alternative Analysis: Potential Scenarios for Reactions of Domestic Violent Extremists to a Disputed 2020 US Presidential Election," which NBC reports "makes no reference to then-President Donald Trump and was finished just a few weeks after Trump told the far-right Proud Boys to 'stand back and stand by' during a presidential debate with now-President Joe Biden."

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NBC reports:

A critique of the FBI's Oct. 27, 2020, "red cell" report was prepared by the Jan. 6 committee but never published. It found that the FBI product never considered that a broader right-wing movement could come together and that a mob itself could be a threat. The FBI analysis was anchored by 'lone offender bias,' and the FBI 'missed the forrest for the trees.' An NBC News reporter viewed the congressional analysis in the course of reporting out the upcoming book 'Sedition Hunters: How January 6th Broke the Justice System,' which will be published by Public Affairs on Oct. 17. The New York Times first reported on the existence of the "red cell" report and the Jan. 6 committee's unpublished critique.

According to the news outlet, the summary read, "The exercise concluded that [domestic violent extremists] capabilities and willingness to take action likely would drive their reactions to a disputed election result, compounded with underlying grievances related to COVID-19 mitigation measures and racial justice tensions. Under this alternative analysis, law enforcement preemption and lack of coordination between [domestic violent extremists] likely would hinder widespread violence, though [domestic violent extremists] engaging in uncoordinated acts of violence remain a threat."

NBC notes the agency "declined to comment on the red cell analysis, but said in a statement that FBI leadership spoke out about the threat of domestic violent extremism well before Jan. 6; that the FBI 'warned state, local, and federal partners about the potential for violence at the January 6 events'; and that they mobilized 250 special agents and other personnel to help secure the Capitol."

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NBC's full report is available at this link.