'Build up a buffer': Economists detail game plan for surviving 'potential' Trump recession

09 April

The New York Stock Exchange in 2018 (Akkurt/Shutterstock.com)

When JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon made a January 22 appearance on CNBC, he defended tariffs as an "economic tool" and told critics of President Donald Trump's tariff proposals to "get over it." The Wall Street banker was encouraging a wait-and-see approach during the first few days of Trump's second presidency, but now that Trump is moving full speed ahead with steep new tariffs and launching all-out trade wars with a variety of countries, Dimon has a very different tone.

Interviewed by Fox Business' Maria Bartiromo on Wednesday morning, April 9, Dimon acknowledged that Trump's tariffs will "probably" lead to a recession. The JPMorgan Chase CEO said he is hearing "recessionary talk" from other business leaders and acknowledged that a recession is a "likely outcome" of Trump's economic policies.

The Atlantic's Marc Novicoff interviewed several economists, detailing ways to survive a "potential" recession.

"The U.S. economic outlook is bleak, but just how bad is it going to get?," Novicoff writes in an article published on April 8. "In the three trading days since President Donald Trump announced his 'Liberation Day' tariff regime, the S&P 500 fell 11 percent and J.P. Morgan put the odds of a U.S. and global recession at 60 percent — while Goldman Sachs raised its odds to 45 percent this week. The only reason the numbers aren’t higher is these banks aren't sure whether to believe Trump — if he really follows through on his 185-front trade war, they argue, the chance of a recession will become significantly higher."

Novicoff continues, "What can Americans do now if a recession is truly around the corner? Build up a buffer."

Novicoff reports that according to economists, the steps to take depend on one's age.

"If you're on the younger side and doing alright financially," Novicoff explains, "avert your eyes and try not to freak out…. The older you are, and the more likely you are to get laid off, the more important it is to have liquid savings."

The Atlantic journalist notes that according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, retirees should make sure they aren't taking on too much risk.

Zandi told Novicoff, "If you're able to save, save….. Think about your broader savings and make sure that it's consistent with your goals and your risk tolerance, and if you're fortunate enough to have an investment manager, it's probably a good time to check in with them."

Economist David Blanchflower urges Americans to be careful with their spending, especially if they don't have a lot in their savings.

Blanchflower told Novicoff, "Cut back spending as much as you can, cut back on luxuries, and try and see out the craziness."

Adam Ozimek, chief economist at the Economic Innovation Group, warns that if too many Americans cut way back on spending at once, that could help bring about a recession.

Ozimek told Novicoff, "There’s a paradox: If everyone tries to save at the same time, that’s obviously one of the ways that a recession can happen. A recession can be a self-fulfilling prophecy."

Marc Novicoff's full article for The Atlantic is available at this link (subscription required).

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