Pennsylvania’s 'red mirage' is 'back for a sequel'

At 8 PM on Election Night 2024, polls closed in Pennsylvania — one of the swing states that could determine whether the United States' next president is Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Kamala Harris.

In an MSNBC op-ed, journalist Ryan Teague Beckwith warns that when votes are being counted in Pennsylvania, it's important not to be fooled by the state's "red mirage."

The term "red mirage" refers to vote counting in the rural GOP-friendly parts of the Keystone State. On Election Night 2020, Trump had an early lead when votes were being counted in rural counties but votes from the heavily Democratic parts of Pennsylvania had yet to be counted.

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"In the key state of Pennsylvania," Beckwith explains, "that underlying dynamic — which led to the 'red mirage' of a Trump win on election night giving way to a 'blue shift' as Democratic votes were counted — is still in place."

The "red mirage," according to Beckwith, is "back for a sequel" in Pennsylvania — which "could give Trump an opening to argue to his supporters that the election is being stolen, as he did in 2020."

In 2020, the Associated Press (AP) didn't call Pennsylvania until four days after the election. AP, determining that now-President Joe Biden's lead over Trump was insurmountable in Pennsylvania, called the state for Biden. And when he won Pennsylvania, Biden won the election.

"Harris told NBC News that her campaign is prepared for the possibility that Trump may prematurely declare victory," Beckwith notes. "'We will deal with Election Night and the days after as they come, and we have the resources and the expertise and the focus on that as well,' she said."

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Ryan Teague Beckwith's full MSNBC op-ed is available at this link.