Swing state economy is 'on the upswing' — and may help Harris win

31 October 2024

One of the swing states that reporters and decision desks will be paying especially close attention to on Election Night 2024 is Pennsylvania, where the presidential race is extremely tight.

Late October polls from CBS News and CNN show former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris tied in Pennsylvania, while a Quinnipiac University poll released on October 30 finds Trump with a 2 percent lead in the Keystone State.

In an op-ed published by the Pennsylvania Capital-Star on Halloween 2024, journalist Mark Kreidler wonders if the state of Pennsylvania's economy could help Harris win its 19 electoral votes.

Pointing to the State of Working Pennsylvania report released on August 27, Kreidler emphasizes that "without question, Pennsylvania’s economy is on the upswing." Yet some Pennsylvania voters, he notes, are pessimistic about the state's economy.

"When asked by Franklin & Marshall pollsters about their overall personal financial situations, nearly half of the respondents said they felt they were worse off than they had been a year ago — a figure that has held steady for most of the past several years," Kreidler explains. "So why the disconnect with voters? Part of the answer may be found in the subsections of the Keystone report."

Kreidler adds, "Although employment levels in most categories have already returned to or well surpassed their numbers from before the pandemic-induced recession, both the construction and manufacturing sectors are still lagging."

Pennsylvania has gone Democratic in most of the United States' post-1980s presidential elections. But Trump won the Keystone State in 2016 before losing it to now-President Joe Biden in 2020. And it remains to be seen whether Trump will win Pennsylvania a second time or lose it a second time.

"It's largely uncertain how wavering Pennsylvania voters will make their decisions," Kreidler observes. "In that respect, the state's most recent — and mostly favorable — economic news could matter greatly in the push to get Harris over the top."

Mark Kreidler's full op-ed for thePennsylvania Capital-Star is available at this link.

From Your Site Articles