Intensifying red state fight could topple GOP’s Senate majority: expert

U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC, U.S., March 29, 2022. Greg Nash/Pool via REUTERS

Alaska is so Republican that a Democrat hasn't carried the state in a presidential election since Lyndon B. Johnson's victory over GOP Sen. Barry Goldwater in 1964. Yet according to polls, Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race is surprisingly close — with incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan slightly ahead in some and Democratic nominee Mary Peltola slightly ahead in others. And if a statewide victory really is in play for Democrats in Alaska, according to Bloomberg News' Ronald Brownstein, it's a bad sign for the GOP in the midterms.

"Democrat Mary Peltola has many things breaking her way in her bid to unseat Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan in Alaska," Brownstein explains in a Bloomberg opinion column. "But Sullivan has one big thing working for him. Whether that's enough will likely determine whether he wins reelection — while also offering clues about the fate of other red-state Republican senators this year. Alaska is vast, sparsely populated and reliably Republican in federal races. Since entering the union in 1959, the state has elected only four Democrats to the Senate, and just one since 1980. But Alaska also has a quirky side."

Brownstein adds, "Although twice as many voters are registered as Republicans than as Democrats, more than half are unaffiliated. That can produce unexpected outcomes, as in 2022, when Peltola won a special election to succeed longtime Republican Rep. Don Young, who died in office. Peltola went on to win a full term that November."

One of the main issues Sullivan is attacking Peltola on, Brownstein notes, is oil. Peltola is on the record as a supporter of drilling for oil in her state, but in a debate, Sullivan, according to Brownstein, is arguing that "electing her would tip Senate control to Democrats hostile to Alaskan drilling."

"Peltola emphasized her personal commitment to oil development — including convincing former President Joe Biden to approve a massive ConocoPhillips project in Willow, Alaska," Brownstein observes. "But mostly, she seemed unsure how to respond. She never offered a clear rebuttal to his central claim — that electing her would inexorably 'empower' Senate liberals out of touch with Alaska. Sullivan tethered that argument to oil development. But versions of it, connected to different local concerns, are also available to Republican Senate candidates facing tough races in other red-leaning states, including Ohio, Iowa, Texas and North Carolina."

Brownstein continues, "Raising alarms about a Democratic-controlled Senate probably won't save all those GOP candidates. But inflaming the doubts red-state voters hold about the national Democratic Party may be the best chance for Senate Republicans to avoid the worst in a year that has already chilled their prospects far beyond Alaska."

From Your Site Articles