Swing state's Senate race no longer a toss-up — with Dem Roy Cooper in the lead

Former Gov. Roy Cooper addresses hundreds of supporters at an April 9, 2026 rally in Durham. (Photo: Brandon Kingdollar/NC Newsline)

Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper is now considered the favorite by top election forecasters to win North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race, a result that would make him the first Democrat to represent the state in the Senate in more than a decade.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan election forecast by the University of Virginia Center for Politics, changed North Carolina’s Senate race from “Toss-up” status to “Leans Democratic” Thursday. In April, Cook Political Report, another widely cited forecaster, also removed the state from its toss-up list and put Cooper in the lead.

Republican Michael Whatley, the former NCGOP and RNC chairman, has struggled to break 40% support in recent polls, while Cooper has often led him by double digits, garnering around 50% support.

The forecast changes reflect a growing sense that Whatley has thus far been unable to define himself to voters, many of whom still report having no opinion about him.

“We expect the race to tighten as Election Day draws nearer. Whatley is simply less familiar to voters, so it’s easy to see conservatives ‘coming home’ to some degree,” wrote Crystal Ball analysts Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman. “This may end up as a razor-thin race by Election Day. But it also doesn’t have to become that, and Cooper may just ride out the race and win by a clearer margin.”

Lack of name recognition has proven particularly challenging for Whatley’s campaign in the face of President Donald Trump’s unpopularity due to the war in Iran and rising cost of living, especially pitted against the well-funded, well-known and well-liked two-term governor.

The president, said Catawba College history and politics professor Michael Bitzer, has become an “anchor” that is dragging GOP candidates down.

“We know that midterm elections tend to be referendums on the president, and especially when the president’s party controls Congress,” Bitzer said. “I think the unhappiness, shall we say, of the American electorate at this point really sends a very clear signal: Republicans are going to have some substantial headwinds come the fall.”

Kondik and Coleman made a similar observation, noting that while GOP candidates in close races have increasingly distanced themselves from the president’s more controversial stances, Whatley has declined to break with the president.

While Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) derided Trump’s unpopular “anti-weaponization” fund as a “payout pot for punks,” Whatley gave the measure his full support, they wrote.

“In fact, the three Republican incumbents we now list in Toss-up — Susan Collins of Maine, Jon Husted of Ohio, and Dan Sullivan of Alaska — joined with Democrats on an ultimately unsuccessful vote to block the fund,” Kondik and Coleman noted.

Western Carolina University political scientist Chris Cooper said Whatley is a “steady Eddie candidate” who generates few headlines, an approach that works well when voters lean toward the GOP, but may not be enough when voters are upset with the party.

“It’s not so much that Whatley’s making mistakes,” he said. “It’s just that this is a good environment for the Democrats nationally, and Whatley isn’t doing a lot to combat that.”

A spokesman for Whatley did not respond to a request for comment on the change in rating.

Roy Cooper campaign manager Jeff Allen said he still sees a long road ahead.

“This race will be very close, which is why we are building a campaign to earn every vote and make sure North Carolinians know that Roy Cooper will fight for them in the Senate,” he said in a statement.

From Your Site Articles