Why Nikki Haley’s motivation for staying in race may be 'buried in the RNC rules': analyst

28 February 2024

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley suffered yet another loss in the 2024 GOP presidential primary when frontrunner Donald Trump defeated her by roughly 42 percent in Michigan's primary — a Trump victory that follows his victories in the Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries.

Nonetheless, Haley has vowed to stay in the race until at least Super Tuesday. And some of her supporters are hoping that she hangs on until the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in July.

In an article published by Politico on February 28, conservative journalist Henry Olsen examines Haley's possible motivations for staying in a race that Trump is clearly dominating — and that motivation, according to Olsen, might be "buried in the Republican National Committee's rules."

"The rules don't simply give power to a candidate based on the number of delegates they possess," Olsen explains. "Candidates cannot have their names placed into nomination, and thereby get television airtime at the convention, unless they have a plurality of delegates in at least five states. That threshold makes a big difference for Haley in terms of her clout — if any — at the convention."

Olsen notes that Haley has picked up 20 delegates so far, and if she has enough delegates in five or more states, she will be able to "cut deals" at the Republican National Convention.

"Against that backdrop," Olsen explains, "Haley's continued campaign makes a great deal of sense. The more delegates she can acquire, the more power she can exert on the floor. And the more power she can exert on the floor, the stronger hand she has to deal from to get concessions from former President Donald Trump on things she cares about, such as U.S. support for NATO. Indeed, given that the party did not even write a platform in 2020, simply insisting that it draft a new one for this election might be a significant request."

Haley's "strategy" for ultimately leaving the race, according to Olsen, might be a "negotiated peace" with Trump instead of "an unconditional surrender."

Olsen stresses, however, that it remains to be seen how many more delegates Haley will be able to pick up.

"Of course, winning at least five states will be hard, owing to her deep weakness with conservative Republicans," Olsen observes. "She almost certainly can't win any state where the rules limit the electorate to registered Republicans. She's also unlikely to win any caucus state because those events tend to draw the most committed — and ideological — party members."

The conservative writer adds, "Yet there are a number of states voting on or before Super Tuesday that suit her. How? Haley's best chances will be in those that are both more moderate than Iowa or South Carolina and that are either open to all registered voters or which permit registered independents to vote in the GOP primary. And they need to have larger shares of college-educated voters, Haley’s only consistently strong demographic thus far."

Read Henry Olsen's full analysis for Politico at this link.

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