U.S. President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump ride an escalator as they arrive to attend the 80th United Nations General Assembly, in New York City, New York, U.S., September 23, 2025. REUTERS/Kylie Cooper TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
In 2025, Democratic and GOP strategists are paying very close attention to two gubernatorial elections: one in New Jersey, the other in Virginia. And both are viewed as a referendum on Donald Trump's second presidency.
The Democratic candidates, Rep. Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (an ex-CIA officer) in Virginia, are attacking Trump relentlessly. But Jack Ciattarelli, New Jersey's GOP gubernatorial nominee, is countering that the race isn't about Trump — it's about the Garden State. And Ciattarelli's messaging might be working.
In an article published on September 27, The Hill's Caroline Vakil stresses that Democratic strategists are growing worried about how much the New Jersey race is tightening.
An Emerson College/The Hill poll released in late September found Sherrill and Ciattarelli in a dead heat, with 11 percent of the voters still undecided. And the Decision Desk HQ polling average, Vakil notes, shows Sherrill leading Ciattarelli by only four points.
Vakil reports, "The (Emerson College/The Hill) survey underscores how Democrats can't take the state for granted, particularly after term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D) narrowly won his last reelection four years ago by 3 points and former Vice President (Kamala) Harris only won it in November by close to 6 points."
Although New Jersey is a blue state, it isn't deep blue like Massachusetts or California.
Democratic strategist Julie Roginsky told The Hill that polls showing Sherrill ahead by 8 percent are "outliers" and said of the Emerson/Hill poll, "I'm not surprised — I always thought this was a competitive race."
Vakil observes, "The survey shows that Trump enjoys a higher approval rating, 41 percent, compared to Murphy at 35 percent. At the same time, Trump has a higher disapproval rating of 51 percent compared to Murphy’s 44 percent. The polling also shows some positive signs for Ciattarelli: the Republican gubernatorial nominee is leading Sherrill among independents at close to 52 percent compared to her 26 percent. A separate 17 percent of independents say they're undecided."
Read Caroline Vakil's full article for The Hill at this link.