Why this Nevada elections expert predicts a Harris victory in his state

04 November 2024

Of the seven battleground states that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have been paying especially close attention to — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina — Nevada is the only won that Trump didn't win in either 2016 and 2020.

Hillary Clinton carried Nevada by 2 percent in 2016, and now-President Joe Biden won the state by 3 percent in 2020.

Trump's campaign is hoping to flip Nevada, but The Nevada Independent's Jon Ralston, in an op-ed published on November 4, lays out some reasons why he believes Harris — not Trump — will prevail in Nevada in 2024.

Ralston predicts that the late Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's (D-Nevada) political operation will come through for Harris.

"I can see from top to bottom that races could go either way," Ralston explains, "but I have decided to trust the Reid Machine that has not lost for four consecutive presidential cycles and will somehow get enough ballots turned in during the next few days to do what it always does. All of this falls apart if indies don't go for Vice President Kamala Harris and if the machine can't get enough ballots returned — not only would Trump win, but there will be upsets down-ballot."

Harris, Ralston notes, will need a heavy turnout in Clark County, which includes Las Vegas.

"Usually, the Democrats, fueled by the machine that Harry Reid built, erect a firewall in populous Clark County that is designed as a bulwark against losses in the 15 red counties, with Washoe County often deciding who wins," Ralston observes. "But this cycle, with former President Donald Trump and Co. discovering it might be smart to encourage Republicans to vote early and even by mail — the horror! — the GOP vote has been frontloaded. The inverse is true, and the question is whether the Democrats can overcome a 43,000-plus GOP ballot lead as I write this."

Ralston argues, however, that in Nevada, many "nonpartisans" are "closet Democrats who were purposely registered by Democrat-aligned groups as nonpartisans."

"The machine knows who they are and will get them to vote," Ralston predicts. "It will be just enough to overcome the Republican lead — along with women motivated by abortion and crossover votes that issue also will cause. I know some may think this reflects my well-known disdain for Trump, heart over data. But that is not so. I have often predicted against my own preferences; history does not lie."

Jon Ralston's full analysis for The Nevada Independent is available at this link.

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