A neuroscientist explains why RFK Jr. has cast a spell upon millions

Get ready America, because things are about to reach a whole new level of crazy. The nation is more ideologically divided than it has ever been in modern times, and no matter who wins the upcoming presidential election, it is practically guaranteed that half of the country is going to feel like the world is about to end.

And just when it seemed modern presidential politics couldn’t possibly move further into the realm of the surreal, an unexpected player has emerged: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

A registered Democrat, this new contender is something of a paradox: a left-wing conspiracy theorist. On one end, Kennedy is a high-profile climate change activist, supports abortion rights and wants to “ensure the civil liberties of minorities and the poor.” On the other, he’s a notable anti-vaxxer and espouses several fringe theories about pharmaceuticals, transgender children and Wi-Fi’s effects on the brain.

This is a combination you don’t see often, but that’s precisely why he is getting so much attention right now from the media and leaders of both major political parties.

We can expect RFK Jr.’s popularity to grow in the coming months, in a way that is certain to change the dynamics of the election. RFK Jr. nevertheless introduces a new wildcard element into an already unpredictable political arena. Incumbent President Joe Biden won't enjoy an unchallenged path to re-election and won’t be able to ignore him — as he’s done so far — forever.

Along the way, Kennedy has the potential to siphon off a chunk of Biden’s of his support. And while the odds of Kennedy capturing the Democratic nomination are minuscule, it’s quite possible RFK Jr. could win at least a couple of states during the Democratic primary. The resulting splintering of the electorate could further weaken an already struggling Biden entering the general election. This is concerning given that one possible outcome is that Donald Trump becomes president again. For this reason alone, we must all be closely watching what is happening with RFK Jr.

In today's increasingly polarized political landscape, few figures have the potential to attract the degree of cross-party interest that Kennedy does. A member of a political dynasty entrenched in progressive politics — RFK Jr. is the son of Sen. Robert F. Kennedy and nephew of President John F. Kennedy — his name alone wields considerable influence over liberals. His credentials go beyond his surname, however, as his persistent advocacy for environmental conservation and climate change activism has, in the past, earned him respect with progressives. Media outlets like CNN have previously praised Kennedy for heavily criticizing president Trump for his disbelief in global warming.

Additionally, his skepticism of big pharma resonates with independents, particularly libertarians, and anti-establishment progressives, such as those who supported Bernie Sanders’ insurgent Democratic presidential runs in 2016 and 2020. Sanders was at times more popular among Democrat voters than Biden during the 2020 presidential primary, though Biden beat him in part because Pete Buttigieg dropped out of the race and gave Biden his support at a key moment — just before the South Carolina primary that Biden would go on to win.

It’s now clear we are seeing an anti-establishment, populist movement cresting in America, on both sides of the political spectrum. And since Sanders won’t be running in the coming election, RFK Jr. may fill the void that he left, especially since the campaign of a third Democrat in the 2024 race — 2020 also-ran Marianne Williamson — appears to be running out of steam.

But Kennedy appeals to the alt-right, as well, due to his anti-establishment leanings and promotion of conspiracy theories, including the idea that certain vaccines may have caused autism, or that the novel coronavirus could have been a manufactured bioweapon. To be fair, Kennedy did not say that vaccines themselves caused autism, but instead attributed it to a mercury-based preservative named thimerosal, which was removed from all childhood vaccines in 2001 as a “cautionary measure” by vaccine manufacturers, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Additionally, his claim that COVID-19 is caused by a coronavirus that disproportionately affects Black and white people has been interpreted as suggesting that it is a bioweapon that was designed to target those races specifically, while sparing Asians and Ashkenazi Jews.

While the first part of that statement may be true — peer-reviewed literature in credible journals reveal that viruses commonly affect certain genetic profiles differently than others — it is a dangerous leap to go from that to suggesting that the novel coronavirus is a weapon engineered for ethnic cleansing. Kennedy is always careful to state that he is not explicitly claiming that the virus was made for that purpose, but he is also not clearly saying that it wasn’t. Look at his double-talk in this tweet — and the clarification tweet that followed it:

First: “The U.S. and other governments are developing ethnically targeted bioweapons and that a 2021 study of the COVID-19 virus shows that COVID-19 appears to disproportionately affect certain races. The furin cleave docking site is most compatible with blacks and Caucasians and least compatible with ethnic Chinese, Finns, and Ashkenazi Jews. In that sense, it serves as a kind of proof of concept for ethnically targeted bioweapons.”

Then: “I do not believe and never implied that the ethnic effect was deliberately engineered.”

This was enough to make him internal enemy No. 1 to the Democratic Party and its allies. The New York Society for Ethical Culture canceled an event where RFK Jr. was scheduled to speak with a rabbi. While it is unknown whether the Democratic National Committee played any role in this cancellation, RFK Jr. certainly believes they did, as explained in this Newsweek article titled “Robert F. Kennedy Jr. accuses Democrats of sabotaging event.”

Many might believe that RFK Jr. killed whatever chance he had to threaten Biden when he made that wildly speculative statement — and it probably should have.

But I’m not so sure.

It is quite possible that his controversial stances, rather than undermining his credibility among Democratic voters, might actually bolster his appeal. This counterintuitive dynamic became evident when Donald Trump ran for president and the mainstream media's constant coverage and non-stop attacks ironically served to boost his popularity. As left-wing news takes aim at RFK Jr., the echoes of Trump's journey suggest a potential repetition of this pattern. Kennedy could easily use these attacks to his advantage the way Trump did, which he already seems to be doing as evidenced by this Politico article titled “RFK Jr.: The media is hitting me harder than Trump.”

Kennedy's candidacy also highlights the curious relationship between conspiracy theories and public interest.

Sometimes, when dialogue around conspiracy theories is suppressed, their allure only intensifies. Dismissing them out of hand can inadvertently make them more appealing to those who distrust authority or feel disaffected by mainstream narratives. Paradoxically, Kennedy's association with such theories, then, could work to his advantage. His position appeals to liberals intrigued by conspiracy theories — who exist in greater numbers than most Americans realize. In fact, a 2017 study has shown that restricting communication in an attempt to enforce political correctness actually has the effect of increasing support for Donald Trump, and I imagine the same effect could be occurring right now and working in Kennedy’s favor.

It is also worth noting that most Americans are now aware of many of the real conspiracies from U.S. history that have been acknowledged by the government, such as MK-Ultra, a 20-year CIA project that illegally experimented on humans with drugs such as LSD and inhumane psychological methods.

Or COINTELPRO, another CIA program that used illegal methods to surveil, discredit and disrupt domestic American political organizations, such as the Black Panther movement.

Or the infamous Tuskegee experiment, where Black men infected with syphilis were deceived and made to believe they were getting medical treatment when they were actually getting placebos — even though treatment was available. As a result, many of these people died completely unnecessarily, and knowledge of this is undoubtedly part of the cause for the current distrust of government and vaccines among the black community, and understandably so.

At least as great as the current distrust of government is the distrust of pharmaceutical companies, especially since shows like Netflix’s Painkiller have brought the story of the opioid crisis to millions of Americans, who now understand the role that these corporations played in it out of pure greed. One could argue that it is rational to not trust the companies profiting massively from vaccines when they are the same ones who played a role in killing tens of thousands of people. It is puzzling that the government agencies in charge of educating the public about vaccines have done essentially nothing to address this issue and regain trust with citizens who have reason to be suspicious of motives based on history.

The implication here is far from straightforward: While most “conspiracy theories” are obviously false and potentially harmful, a blanket dismissal of all theories about conspiracies is obviously not the answer, and can lead to the opposite of the intended effect.

Instead, an open dialogue that acknowledges the existence of genuine conspiracies will be necessary to counteract the spread of dangerous misinformation about fact-free conspiracy theories. That’s what re-establishing trust will require, and we will have to embrace this messy subject and devise new educational solutions. Of course, this is easier said than done, because how is one supposed to determine which theories are bogus and which ones could be legitimate?

Just last week, a U.S. House committee conducted a hearing on UFOs where a former Department of Defense official testified that the government has found non-human “biologics” on crashed vehicles of unknown origins — and has worked to cover it up. With such stories coming out, whether they are true or not, the American public is undoubtedly very confused about what to believe, and how to appropriately apply skepticism when one simply can’t be sure of the truth. If one is not skeptical enough, they can become vulnerable to bogus theories. But if one is too skeptical, they can also become vulnerable to bogus theories, because of their extreme levels of doubt toward mainstream narratives.

What we need is a systematic approach to determining truth, and that can be provided by a method known to scientists and statisticians as Bayesian reasoning. The term sounds complex on the surface, but it can be applied in a simple form by anyone. This may be necessary, as studies have shown that the human brain tends to believe things as a default because it simply takes more mental effort and cognitive resources to reject something as untrue compared to just accepting it.

Looking ahead, it seems that RFK Jr. is here to stay, at least for the immediate future. His anti-establishment stance, coupled with a generally progressive worldview, provides an attractive option for voters disenchanted with mainstream politicians — including Biden — but reluctant to support Trump over his xenophobia, pathological lying and malignant narcissism.

As RFK Jr. carves his path through presidential politics, his journey serves as a testament to the unpredictability of the American electorate and the nuanced ways in which media narratives can shape public sentiment.

As the upcoming presidential race unfolds, Kennedy's campaign is likely to continue attracting interest and stirring dialogue around the themes of anti-establishment sentiment, conspiracy theories and media bias. We must confront these topics head on. If we don’t, the cancer that is unchecked misinformation will only continue to metastasize, undermining the very foundations of our democracy.

Bobby Azarian is a cognitive neuroscientist and the author of the new book The Romance of Reality: How the Universe Organizes Itself to Create Life, Consciousness, and Cosmic Complexity. He is also a blogger for Psychology Today and the creator of the Substack Road to Omega. Follow him @BobbyAzarian.