Donald Trump spent much of his presidency alienating United States allies, buddying up to autocratic dictators like Russia's Vladimir Putin and North Korea's Kim Jong Un and pulling the U.S. out of international accords. According to former National Security Adviser John Bolton, he had to talk Trump out of quitting the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 2018.

Fear of Ukraine joining NATO is one of Putin's excuses for invading his western neighbor and has put a spotlight on the 30-nation alliance. Bolton recently said, “In a second Trump term, I think he may well have withdrawn from NATO. And I think Putin was waiting for that.”

Daily Beast columnist Matt Lewis today is asking the question: what happens to NATO if Trump actually were to win a second term.

"Trump may still get that second term," he writes. "Then the question could shift from 'What happens to non-NATO states like Ukraine and Taiwan' to 'What happens to the Baltic states? What happens to Poland?"

"What I am saying is that America’s ability to maintain the trust of our allies and preserve NATO’s principle of collective defense is incredibly tenuous. Regardless of the messages of deterrence that the West is now sending Russia (and China), it could all be upset by an incoming president with little regard to preserving past systems.

"In a mere two-and-a-half years, we may (re-)elect a leader of the Free World who is hostile to the idea of preserving the post-World War II rules-based international system and the institutions and alliances that have supported it for more than 70 years," Lewis continues. "If that happens, a lot of the hard work and sacrifice that is taking place right now—by Ukraine and, to a far lesser extent, the West—could be in vain."

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