MSNBC host laments 'really grim and unnerving' polling showing Trump with nearly half the vote

07 September 2023

Former President Barack Obama's 2008 campaign manager and eventual White House senior adviser David Plouffe cautioned MSNBC host Chris Hayes on Thursday's edition of All In that reading too deeply into presidential election polls months before primary contests begin paints an unreliable picture of the state of the race.

Iowa will hold its first-in-the-nation caucus on January 15th, 2024, and ex-President Donald Trump is dominating the crowded Republican primary field.

"Donald Trump or any of the knuckleheads running for the nomination..." Plouffe began, though he was interrupted by Hayes.

POLL: Should Trump be allowed to hold office again?

"The American people don't think they're knuckleheads, David," Hayes declared.

"But they're going to get forty-six or forty-seven percent of the vote, okay, so that's where we live, even with all the indictments," Plouffe continued.

"You really think that's the floor?" Hayes exclaimed.

"I do," Plouffe affirmed.

Hayes was taken aback by Plouffe's assessment.

"This is the thing — just stay with me for a second. I keep playing this game. It's like, what would it take to get it below forty-six percent? And maybe the answer is nothing. And like, there's something really grim and unnerving about that," Hayes lamented.

"It is," Plouffe agreed. "Now, listen, Trump never got forty-seven percent, even in the election he won. So it's possible when the race gets joined and people stare down the barrel of Trump coming back to the White House, he goes forty-five and a half, but you're in that range. And so you're fighting over a small sliver of voters. That's what the entire campaign is. All this money, all this time, all the polls — is going to be fighting over a very small sliver of voters and a very small sliver of states."

Hayes had some additional questions.

"Do you think there's something, I was thinking about these, those polls showing this in September, and obviously there's all sorts of different things happening macroeconomically. But I do wonder if like, first of all, the state of the country and the world could just change a lot in twelve months, right?" he wondered. "I mean, I remember the stories after Trump was, you know, failed to be convicted in his first impeachment. There's a round of stories like, 'Trump's back, baby, and he's on the rise.' His poll number was like, coronavirus. Like, pfft. No one was like, 'You know, we're gonna have an epoch-defining pandemic.' Do you think there's something about this sort of period before the campaign really kicks in that changes the dynamic?"

Plouffe replied, "Absolutely. You're right. Circumstances can change, but the race isn't joined. It's very theoretical for voters. And so, we won't really know where the race stands, I think, beginning to get a sense until May or June of next year."

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