How Mike Johnson could flounder as speaker — 'even with total control of government'

05 December 2024

Democrats suffered three major disappointments in the 2024 election when President-elect Donald Trump narrowly defeated Vice President Kamala Harris and Republicans flipped the U.S. Senate while keeping their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. But progressive journalist and former MSNBC host Mehdi Hasan has been arguing that Republicans are being disingenuous when they use words like "landslide," "historic" and "blowout" to describe the election results.

Trump, according to the Cook Political Report, won the popular vote by roughly 1.4 or 1.5 percent — which, as Hasan has noted, is far from a "landslide."

In 2025, Republicans' 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate will hardly qualify as a supermajority. And House Speaker Mike Johnson, the New York Times' Catie Edmondson emphasizes in an article published on December 4, will have very little wiggle room in 2025 when he leads a narrow majority.

"Speaker Mike Johnson's small majority just got even smaller," Edmondson reports. "On Tuesday night, (December 3), the final House race was called after Rep. John Duarte of California, a freshman Republican, conceded to Adam Gray, a Democrat, cementing a 220-215 majority for Republicans in a margin even slimmer than they have now, at 220-213.

Those margins will erode even further in January, when Reps. Elise Stefanik of New York and Mike Waltz of Florida resign to take jobs in the Trump Administration.

The Times reporter adds, "Former Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida has also given notice that he will not return. Republicans will then be down to a 217-215 majority, on par with the narrowest controlling margin in House history."

With a majority that small, Edmondson notes, Johnson will have precious little room for error.

"If all Democrats are present and united in opposition to a measure," according to Edmondson, "Mr. Johnson won't be able to afford a single defection on the House floor until those vacancies are filled later this spring. Even then, no more than three Republicans can break ranks without dooming a bill's passage."

Edmondson also points out that not all of the Republicans serving in the House in 2025 will be far-right ideologues.

"Even with total control of government," the Times reporter observes, "Mr. Johnson will have to balance the demands of hard-right lawmakers who have agitated for drastic spending reductions against more centrist members who generally oppose harsh cuts.

Read the New York Times' full report at this link (subscription required).

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