Mike Johnson has 'absolutely no cushion' as his chaotic majority 'keeps getting smaller'

2024 finds House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) facing a variety of challenges, from a shrinking majority and a series of special elections to the possibility of a partial federal government shutdown. Johnson is also at risk of being ousted as speaker — the fate that former Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-California) suffered in 2023 — if enough members of the far-right House Freedom Caucus dislike his spending plans.

In a report published on January 16, the New York Times' Carl Hulse describes some of the difficulties Johnson is up against as his majority continues to shrink.

"Day by day, thanks to a combination of coincidence, scandal, health issues and political turmoil, the GOP majority keeps getting smaller," Hulse explains. "This week, with lawmakers absent for medical reasons and the recent not-so-voluntary departures of the ousted former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and the expelled Mr. Santos, the best GOP attendance that Speaker Mike Johnson can muster as he tries to avoid a government shutdown is the bare-minimum 218 votes. That is before factoring in the impact of rough winter weather across the nation."

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The Times reporter continues, "Another Republican, Rep. Bill Johnson of Ohio, is resigning as of Sunday to take a job as a university president, lowering the number to 217 if Rep. Harold Rogers of Kentucky, the 86-year-old dean of the House, is unable to quickly return from recuperating from a car accident. Rep. Steve Scalise of Louisiana, the No. 2 Republican, is out until at least next month while undergoing cancer treatment. As a result, the GOP could soon be able to afford just a single defection on any matter if Democrats remain united and have no absences of their own."

Hulse points out that Johnson finds himself between a rock and a hard place when it comes to spending.

Because the speaker "has absolutely no cushion if he chooses to rely strictly on the votes of his own party," Hulse observes, he "cut a deal with Democrats" in order to avoid a partial government shutdown — a deal that is "further angering the hard right."

Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Maryland) argues that Johnson, in effect, does not have a true working GOP majority.

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Hoyer told the Times, "When anything hits the fan, they don't have 218. They are not the majority party in this House."

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The New York Times' full report is available at this link (subscription required).