'Very positive news' for Trump’s Senate foes puts GOP majority in serious jeopardy

Democratic strategists know that in the 2026 midterms, their chances of flipping the U.S. House of Representatives are much better than their chances of flipping the U.S. Senate — where they will need to capture at least four GOP-held seats in order to win a majority. But Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-New York) is arguing that the political environment for Republicans has become so "toxic" that flipping the Senate in November isn't out of the question for Democrats.

In an article published on January 15, The New Republic's Perry Bacon lays out some reasons why prospects for Democrats are looking better in the Senate — which, Bacon acknowledges, is still an uphill climb for them in the midterms.

"Democrats can't ever seem to win federal races in North Carolina, but former Gov. Roy Cooper is the strongest U.S. Senate candidate that the party has run there in a long time," Bacon explains. "The party also has also convinced former Sen. Sherrod Brown to run for his old job in Ohio. And this week, Mary Peltola, who in August 2022 won a statewide special election for Alaska's only U.S. House seat and was reelected that November, officially entered the U.S. Senate race there. Such a strong crop of Senate candidates is very positive news."

Bacon continues, "With these candidates running and the increased unpopularity of Maine Republican Susan Collins, Democrats have a small chance of winning the U.S. Senate this year — which would block President Trump from judicial confirmations and many other powers in his final two years in office. Even if they can't pull that off, flipping one or two seats in 2026 hands the party a very strong chance to get to 50 in 2028, giving it a majority if a Democrat wins the presidency and a Democratic vice president can cast tie-breaking votes."

Another state that political strategists are keeping a close eye on this year is Texas, where incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and far-right State Attorney General Ken Paxton are fighting a bitter GOP primary battle. Washington Post columnist George Will and former White House Deputy Press Secretary Sarah Matthews are among the conservatives who believe that Texas could be in play for Democrats if Paxton, a divisive conspiracy theorist, is the nominee. However, Matthews also argues that Democratic firebrand Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) would probably be too progressive for a statewide race in the Lone Star State if she's the nominee.

Texas State Rep. James Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian, is another Democratic possibility in that U.S. Senate race. And a new primary poll finds Talarico and Paxton in a dead heat in a hypothetical matchup. The poll also finds Talarico leading Crockett by 9 percent on the Democratic side.

Bacon argues that Trump's low approval ratings are a liability for Republicans in the midterms.

"I am not prematurely declaring victories for Democrats in 2026 or 2028," Bacon writes. "Nothing is guaranteed. But these early developments in the 2026 Senate contests really matter. The way that American politics is currently polarized, with Democrats dominating in urban areas and the coasts but very weak in small, rural states in the Great Plains and Mountain West, essentially everything must go right for the party to win the Senate. And a lot is going right for Democrats right now. Trump's poll numbers have plunged, making him unpopular even in red and purple states that he won in 2024."

Read Perry Bacon's full article for The New Republic at this link.