U.S. President Donald Trump talks at a press conference with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer (not pictured) at Chequers at the conclusion of a state visit on September 18, 2025 in Aylesbury, England. Leon Neal/Pool via REUTERS
Many reporters have said that the steep Medicaid cuts in President Donald Trump's "big, beautiful bill" are unlikely to have a major impact on the 2026 midterms because their full impact won't be felt under after that.
But in an article published by Politico on September 18, Joanne Kenen — the journalist-in-residence at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore — stresses that "massive cuts" to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act of 2010, a.k.a. Obamacare, could affect Republicans sooner rather than later.
"The conventional wisdom in Washington is that by pushing off big changes to Medicaid until after the 2026 midterms, Republicans shielded themselves from voter backlash," Kenen explains. "Don't be so sure. A full year before anyone casts their vote in November 2026 — meaning now, in the fall of 2025 — the American health care system will begin transitioning from an era of unprecedented expansion of coverage to an era of unprecedented cutbacks. And President Donald Trump and the GOP-controlled Congress will be easy to blame."
Unless "expiring Obamacare provisions" are funded, Kenen warns, "insurance premiums are set to rise, often by double-digit percentages."
Anthony Wright, executive director of Families USA, told Politico, "It's an immediate firestorm for the Republicans."
Kenen cites "three key areas where Republicans are rolling the dice" with health care. They are: (1) "Obamacare benefits take a hit," (2) "health providers get squeezed," and (3) "Medicaid gets transformed."
"If, as the industry expects, the regulations come out in mid-2026, and it takes about 90 days to digest and translate them into consumer-friendly language, that would mean a big messaging wave could come just before people go to the polls," Kenen observes. "Notifications about work rules will also come out around then."
Read Joanne Kenen's full Politico article at this link.