How 'dealmaker' Sinema could save Arizona from Trump and Kari Lake: analysis

Centrist Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, a former Democrat turned independent, has yet to say whether or not she is seeking reelection in Arizona's 2024 U.S. Senate race. If she runs, Arizona could see a three-way competition between Sinema and the major parties' likely nominees: far-right MAGA Republican and conspiracy theorist Kari Lake and liberal Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego.

In an article published by the conservative website The Bulwark on February 20, A.B. Stoddard argues that in order to save Arizona from Lake, Sinema should retire from the U.S. Senate and not seek a second term.

Stoddard's piece is not anti-Sinema. The journalist praises Sinema as a "dealmaker" who has "done a lot for democracy."

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But Gallego, Stoddard emphasizes, is best equipped to defeat Lake in November, assuming they are the nominees.

"Should she run again, Sinema could help elect GOP candidate Kari Lake to the Senate and Donald Trump to the White House in a critical battleground," Stoddard explains. "Her retirement could make it harder for them. A three-way race between Sinema, Lake, and Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego is tied between Republican and Democrat, according to a recent poll. Sinema, as is consistent through all of the three-way matchup surveys, is in a distant third place and not breaking through."

Stoddard continues, "If Sinema, the moderate, incumbent dealmaker, were to run, the progressive Gallego would lose votes to her. So would Lake. Polls show that Sinema would likely pull more from Lake than Gallego, but Gallego probably has a better shot in a two-way race against Lake — it makes the race more about Lake. Since polling shows Sinema never pulls even with either of them, her candidacy would risk Lake pulling out a win. Without Sinema in the picture, Gallego can move to the open center to become the choice of the independents and Republicans who are repelled by extremism and have delivered victories to Democrats statewide since 2018."

Stoddard describes Lake as an extremist who told "McCain Republicans" to "get the hell out" of a GOP event in Arizona, promotes "the Big Lie" and associates with "QAnon supporters." And keeping Lake out of the U.S. Senate, she stresses, needs to be Arizona's top priority in that race.

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"Sinema has done a lot for democracy," Stoddard argues. "She has made government work. Helping Lake become a U.S. senator would be terrible for democracy. And private equity opportunities and wine tours await. Sinema should retire now and beat Nikki Haley to all the best job offers."

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A.B. Stoddard's full article for The Bulwark is available at this link.