Economist Paul Krugman: Why 2024 may be America’s 'last real national election'

31 May 2024

The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be unlike any other in United States history.

President Joe Biden, seeking reelection, is a conventional centrist Democrat who is similar, from a policy standpoint, to former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. But the presumptive 2024 GOP nominee, Donald Trump, is the first former U.S. president who is awaiting sentencing after being convicted on 34 criminal counts by a Manhattan jury — while facing criminal indictments in three separate cases. And Trump's allies, with Project 2025, have outlined a plan for restructuring the United States' federal government that is a radical departure from anything proposed by conservative GOP presidents of the past such as George W. Bush, George H.W. Bush and Ronald Reagan.

In his May 30 column for the New York Times, liberal economist Paul Krugman argues that the U.S. could cease to be a true democracy if Trump defeats Biden.

"There's a very real possibility that if Trump wins in November," Krugman warns, "it'll be the last real national election America holds for a very long time. And while there's room for disagreement here, if you consider that statement to be outrageous hyperbole, you haven't been paying attention…. Start here: Trump refused to accept the results of the 2020 presidential election, making evidence-free claims of fraud in his effort to overturn it."

The Times columnist adds, "In the past couple of years, various polls have shown that somewhere around two-thirds of the Republican Party has co-signed his election denialism. And several leading party members have refused to say that they'll accept the election results this year. Why imagine that they'll become any more respectful toward future elections?"

Krugman argues that a "Trump victory" over Biden in November "might well bring down the curtain on politics as we know it."

"(Trump) has already floated the idea of a third term, something that's barred, of course, by the 22nd Amendment," Krugman observes. "But in any case, among his followers, at least, he has mainstreamed the idea that any presidential election won by Democrats is illegitimate…. Trump advisers are talking about radical policies, including mass deportations and stripping the Federal Reserve of independence, that would be highly disruptive even in purely economic terms."

Krugman is critical of both "leftists" who are threatening to vote against Biden because of his Israel/Gaza policies and conservatives who have reservations about Trump but are supporting him anyway. Both of them, Krugman argues, don't fully grasp what is at stake in this election.

"To be clear," the economist/Times columnist writes, "I'm not saying that people should muzzle themselves and refrain from criticizing Biden on the merits; he's a grown-up and can handle it. Part of his job as a democratically elected leader is taking it. But ignoring the possibility that this could be our last real election for a while is shortsighted and self-indulgent."

Paul Krugman's full New York Times column is available at this link (subscription required).

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