U.S. President Donald Trump in Clive, Iowa, U.S., January 27, 2026. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
A top Republican strategist has a warning for President Donald Trump and the rest of his party: All of their gerrymandering may hurt them in the end instead of helping them.
Speaking with “Sunday Night in America” host Trey Gowdy on Sunday, former President George W. Bush adviser Karl Rove explained that his party’s push to redistrict all over America could backfire on them and may not even help them retain control of the House of Representatives.
“You could in essence take … like here in Texas, take big cities, which are typically Democrat, and split them up among several sort of suburban and rural Republicans and thereby reduce their margin and make [House Republicans] more vulnerable in an election year,” Rove explained to Gowdy. He added that in the South splitting up Black-majority districts into multiple Republican districts could “make things more problematic in a swing year” precisely because there are so many unpredictable variables at play.
“Nothing ever plays out exactly in politics as we think it does,” Rove argued. When he later used a white board to estimate that Republican gerrymandering will help them gain between eight and 12 seats, while Democrats gain between five and six seats, Rove added that the “normal malaise” in midterm elections will likely hurt Republicans so much that their net gains will not be enough to protect their control of the House.
“It’s hard to believe that the Republican losses are only going to be five or six seats,” Rove observed.
This is not the first time Rove has criticized Trump’s political strategies. Even though Rove supports Trump’s invasion of Iran, praising it in March as a “historic act,” he also expressed alarm over what he characterized as Trump’s bungling of the communication component of selling that war to the American people.
“The effort has showcased military and intelligence brilliance and gutsy leadership,” Rove argued. “It began with the American president and the Israeli prime minister. It has continued with leaders of half a dozen Middle Eastern and eastern Mediterranean countries.”
Rove continued, though, that “despite all this, the White House must deal with two stark realities: No one knows how this will end, and the war against the mullahs in Tehran isn’t popular at home.” He explained that on average surveys found 41.3 percent of America supporting the Iran war while 48.7 percent opposed it.
“No rally-’round-the-flag effect there,” Rove pointed out. “Support for the president and his policy didn’t get a patriotic boost when the shooting started. Not even as U.S. planes, warships and fighters successfully pounded the leaders of a country that has chanted ‘Death to America’ for some 47 years and backed that threat by spending the country’s oil riches to support terrorism across the globe.”
Overall, he described Trump’s approach as excessively glib.
Rove explained, “This can’t be just left to the eight-minute Truth Social video the president posted early Saturday morning or to a few brief calls by him to journalists.”
In February, Rove also expressed concern that Trump’s overall approach to policy and publicity had only solidified his hold over his base while alienating the rest of America.
“Almost everything the president said energized his MAGA hard core. But they aren’t enough to stave off a shellacking this fall,” Rove told The Wall Street Journal. “Mr. Trump should have fixated more on those of his 2024 voters who have since become disenchanted: Those represented by his approval rating’s almost 8-point slide in the RealClearPolitics average since re-entering office.”
He added, “That isn’t a large slice of the electorate, but those swing voters will decide which party controls Congress for Mr. Trump’s final two years in the White House.” Overall he urged Trump to stop focusing on “frivolities.”
"Democrats want this election to be a referendum on Mr. Trump,” Rove wrote in February. “So they’re happy for him to fill his days attacking the Super Bowl halftime show, posting a map showing Greenland, Canada and Venezuela as American possessions or trashing a U.S. Olympic athlete on Truth Social. Every moment he spends on such frivolities is a missed opportunity to advance his cause."