Florida in play for Harris? Election could hinge on 'inactive' Sunshine State Dem voters

13 August 2024

Can Vice President Kamala Harris win Florida?

It would seem almost impossible, but Florida Democrats are saying this time it’s different, they are “Unburdened by what has been.” And there are several factors that could fuel Harris’s momentum.

For decades Florida has been considered a battleground state, while voting to put a Republican in the White House in eight of the past 12 presidential elections. In 2022, Sunshine State voters sent just eight Democrats to the House of Representatives, out of a total of 28. Both of Florida’s U.S. Senators are Republicans. The Florida legislature – House and Senate – are controlled by Republicans with strong majorities in each. And Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis, maintains a strong favorability rating despite his failed run for president.

Many seniors in recent years, including Kamala Harris’s Republican opponent, Donald Trump, have moved to Florida, boosting the state’s conservative population and increasing its Electoral College votes to 30, from 29 in the last presidential election.

Registered Florida Republican voters officially outweigh registered Democrats by one million, but Florida Democratic Party Executive Director Philip Jerez is calling that a “manufactured voter registration lead,” according to Florida Politics, which adds, “If you’re explaining, you’re losing..”

In a memo, Jerez writes, “what Republicans aren’t telling you is that this voter registration total excludes 886,066 registered Democratic voters,” who did not vote in the 2022 election. “While inactive voters are not counted in public voter registration totals, they are still eligible to vote on Election Day.”

“Over the past few years, Republicans have passed new elections laws, two specifically that changed ‘list maintenance’ processes,” Jerez says. “As a result, almost one million Democratic voters have been labeled ‘inactive voters’ and wiped from the total reported to the public — the same margin Republicans claim victory on.”

“Following the 2022 elections, which saw historically low turnout for Florida Democrats — intentional changes in election laws targeting voters who sat out 2022 caused a dramatic rise in the number of inactive voters in the state,” Jerez added.

And while it may be hard to see the state that voted for Donald Trump not only twice – but by an even larger margin in 2020, an election he lost – as being evenly split, the Harris-Walz campaign has momentum.

“Democrats’ dream of putting Florida in play could finally be coming true — if you believe the latest polling out of the Sunshine State,” Politico reports Tuesday afternoon. Florida Democrats say point-blank: “Florida is in play.”

Two new just-released polls put Harris within single-digits of Trump – five points in one, eight points in another. The five-point lead (47-42) in the USA TODAY/Suffolk University/WSVN-TV poll is being described as a “danger” for the former president, by USA Today.

“Trump leads Harris by 5 percentage points in the survey, but that’s closer than other recent polls and much less than Gov. Ron DeSantis’ 19-point blowout in 2022. It’s also within the poll’s 4.4% margin of error and another sign of the enthusiasm Harris has generated nationwide within the Democratic Party since she entered the race,” USA Today reports, also noting that “Democrats fell dramatically behind Republicans in voter registration.”

But, as Politico notes, the polling “result comes as Harris has enjoyed a surge of enthusiasm — a fact that the poll even reflects: Harris’ Florida supporters are on par with Trump’s in enthusiasm, ‘with 89% of each group saying they are very or somewhat excited to vote for their candidate.'”

In addition to the grassroots momentum, Harris has two big positives on her side: Florida voters have put abortion rights and marijuana rights on the ballot. Both are polling very favorably, despite Governor DeSantis’s opposition.

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