Although Joe Biden is only 11 months into his presidency, countless political pundits have been speculating on what lies ahead for 2024. Politico’s Bill Scher, with 2022 less than a week away, analyzes 2024’s “emerging presidential field” in an article published this week — weighing in on what their performances in 2021 could mean for them in 2024.
Trump hasn’t said for sure that he plans to run in 2024, but Scher believes that if he does, he is likely to receive the GOP nomination.
“The safest bet to make regarding 2024 is that if Trump wants the Republican Party’s nomination, he will get the Republican Party’s nomination,” Scher explains. “Unlike most one-term presidents, Trump remains popular within his own party. Polls indicate he would lap the primary field, typically putting at least 30 points between himself and his closest potential opponent.”
Scher adds, however, that Trump “spent his 2021 sowing disunity” in the GOP and “picking fights with insufficiently slavish Republicans.”
“He has the inside track to the nomination,” Scher notes, “but his insecure, bullying nature led him to spend more time attacking fellow Republicans than Democrats, undermining his ability to unite his own party behind him.”
Biden’s poll numbers, Scher writes, continue to be disappointing as 2021 draws to a close — although he has time to turn them around before 2024.
“Biden is not the first president with job approval numbers that fall below 50% mid-way through his first term, and many who have — including the last two Democratic presidents, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton — recover in time to win reelection,” Scher explains. “Perhaps this time next year, the pandemic will be tamed, inflation will have cooled, and a revised Build Back Better bill will be law…. Instead of reminding Democrats of his proven ability to defeat Donald Trump, Biden ends the year with polls suggesting he could lose a rematch, and renewed chatter that the soon-to-be octogenarian won’t run for reelection.”
Scher argues that 2021 was an even worse year for Vice President Kamala Harris.
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“By almost every measure,” Scher writes, “Vice President Kamala Harris had the worst year of any Democratic office holder with the exception of Andrew Cuomo. Her job approval and favorability numbers track in the low 40s, lower than Biden’s. Her portfolio assignments of immigration and voting rights have been sources of controversy and frustration. Her media coverage has been relentlessly negative, shaped by Democratic operatives fretting about her political standing and management style.”
Nonetheless, Scher adds that Harris is still well-liked by “rank-and-file Democrats” and would have a very good shot at her party’s nomination if Biden doesn’t run in 2024.