Experts predict 'most extreme' outcome of speakership vote: report

02 January

Ahead of the House speakership vote on Friday, constitutional and congressional experts are weighing the various outcomes if Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) doesn't win the vote, according to Politico.

One of the potential outcomes includes a roadblock to Donald Trump's ability to officially begin his second presidency on January 20. Despite the president-elect's endorsement of Johnson last month, several GOP members want the speaker out.

“I don’t think Trump has any interest in messing with the [certification]. And so there’s going to be a lot of pressure to coordinate on someone without a protracted fight," ex-Hill staffer Matthew Glassman told Politico.

Politico reports, "If it becomes clear that Johnson can’t win the gavel, congressional experts say the least chaotic path for the House would be to elect a temporary or 'caretaker' speaker."

Whoever becomes the "temporary" speaker, according to the news outlet, "would be tasked with swearing in all incoming House members, adopting procedures to govern the certification of the 2024 election and convening the House on Jan. 6 so lawmakers can meet to count the votes of the Electoral College, finalizing Trump’s victory."

Once Trump becomes president, "the caretaker speakership would end, facilitating the election of a permanent speaker," but according to Politico, "The biggest question about this path is whether Johnson himself would support it. His allies have been making the case that he must be elected speaker to ensure that Trump’s certification as president is not delayed. If he endorses a caretaker speakership, he instantly loses that leverage."

Aside from this, "The most extreme, maximally chaotic outcome of this battle is a protracted speakership fight without a caretaker, one that stretches so deep into January it threatens the inauguration," the news outlet notes, but many "experts expect the House to get its act together by then, if only to avoid this precise scenario, but given the chamber’s chaos, it’s hard to count anything out."

Politico's full report is available at this link.

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