House Speaker Mike Johnson on March 4, 2025 (Joshua Sukoff/Shutterstock.com)
After Democrats’ strong showing in Tuesday’s deep-red Tennessee special election — losing by single digits in a district Trump won by 22 points — political pundits and anonymous Republican lawmakers have begun predicting a large GOP exodus from the House of Representatives after the winter break.
Already, Speaker Johnson has a razor-thin margin, and numerous Republicans, like U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, have announced their retirement.
“More than two dozen GOP lawmakers have already announced their decision to leave their seats at the end of the term, and the number is expected to grow in the coming weeks as lawmakers visit their families for the holidays, complicating Republican efforts to fend off a blue wave and keep their slim majority,” The Hill reported on Wednesday.
According to the House Press Gallery, 24 Republicans have announced they are retiring or seeking another office.
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“Overall,” The Hill added, “34 House Republicans chose not to seek reelection and 14 had resigned during their term in the 2018 cycle. Democrats ended up winning control of the House that year.”
Some have suggested that Speaker Johnson could lose his gavel before the end of this Congress if Republicans continue to resign.
Reasons for leaving Congress are myriad. Some, like U.S. Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-TX), the former White House Physician to the President, “noted many of his fellow colleagues he knows are stepping away to spend more time with their families.”
U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) told the Hill that House Republicans are “consigned to be automatons.”
“They just have to do whatever Trump wants them to do. What fun is that, if you’re an adult?” he asked.
But one House Republican has a different take on what The Hill is calling House Republicans’ “exodus problem.”
U.S. Rep. Randy Fine (R-FL), who just took office in April, welcomes the expected changes to the GOP conference.
“Fresh blood is good,” he told The Hill. “I don’t think people serving for 50 years is a great thing, so I think turnover is a good thing.”