'Emerging fault lines': Swing-district Republicans fear deep budget cuts 'could cost them their seats'

18 February

President Donald Trump, on January 20, 2025, returned to the Oval Office with Republican majorities in both branches of Congress. But those majorities are small ones. Republicans control the U.S. Senate with a 53-47 majority, and they have three more seats than Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This means that if Senate and House Democrats stick together on key votes, there will be little room for defection on the GOP side. And that includes votes on spending and budgetary matters.

Politico's Meredith Lee Hill details the budgetary disagreements that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) is facing within his three-seat majority — which could become even smaller if Democrats win special elections later this year.

"On Thursday, (February 13), as Republican hardliners celebrated a concession they won from party leaders to force deeper spending cuts as part of the GOP's sweeping policy push, centrists expressed deep alarm about the trajectory of the massive legislation that will include border security, energy, defense and tax provisions. The emerging fault lines are many: GOP members in high-tax blue states are concerned that the plan doesn't leave enough room to expand the state and local tax deduction. And Senate Republicans and some House hardliners aren't ready to give up on a competing two-bill plan."

Johnson's House majority ranges from hardcore budget hawks like Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) to Republicans in swing districts who aren't as fiscally conservative. Those swing-district lawmakers, according to Hill, "believe that the steep spending cuts Johnson wants across Medicaid, food assistance and other safety-net programs for low-income Americans could cost them their seats."

Rep. David Valadao (R-California) told Politico, "I don't know where they’re going to get the cuts… Obviously Medicaid and SNAP are ones that I'm very much watching."

Valadao's district has a lot of Democrats. Similarly, Rep. Don Bacon (R-Nebraska) is in a district that former Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024, and he fears that deep cuts won't go over well with his voters.

Bacon told Politico, "Most of us support work requirements for able-bodied adults with no children, and we should make sure it’s not going to people who don’t qualify. Beyond that, President Trump said he was reluctant to see cuts in Medicaid that will impact the most needy. His gut instinct is right here."

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