U.S. President Donald Trump waves as he returns to the White House from Dover Air Force Base, in Washington, D.C., December 17, 2025. REUTERS/Aaron Schwartz
During his presidential speech on Wednesday night, December 17, Donald Trump forcefully defended his record on the economy. Trump claimed that inflation soared under his predecessor, Democratic former President Joe Biden, but has plummeted since his return to the White House almost 11 months ago.
Voters, however, are giving Trump low marks on the economy in poll after poll.
A recent Associated Press/NORC poll found that only 31 percent of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the economy (AP), and in an Emerson College poll, 36 percent of respondents gave Trump an "F" on the economy.
In an article published by the National Review on December 19, conservative/libertarian scholar Jack Salmon — a research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University outside Washington, DC — warns Republicans that Trump's poll numbers will continue to suffer as long as voters are feeling frustrated over inflation.
"This week's release of the latest Consumer Price Indices underscores the one issue area where polls consistently show President Trump performing particularly badly," explains Salmon, who has also conducted research for the libertarian Cato Institute. "It isn't immigration, it isn't trade, and it isn’t even the overall handling of the economy. It's the cost of living, or inflation."
Salmon continues, "The president's net approval rating on the first three issues ranges from −5 percent to −17 percent. On inflation, voters give the president a net approval of −28 percent, with nearly two-thirds disapproving. It's easy to see why. Year-over-year inflation, stuck at 2.7 percent as of November, remains well above the Federal Reserve's target of 2 percent. The underlying drivers of that inflation remain cause for concern today — namely, out-of-control deficits and a rapidly growing national debt."
The scholar, citing New York Federal Reserve Data, notes that consumers "expect inflation to be above 3 percent a year from now." The "cost of living," he adds, "is the issue that will likely decide the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections."
"If the inflation surge of the last few years taught us anything," Salmon argues, "it is that nothing topples a government's political standing faster than rising prices. Unless policymakers change course, voters will once again make their discontent unmistakably clear."
Jack Salmon's full article for the conservative National Review is available at this link.