Trump’s war 'surrender' unlikely to save GOP from midterms disaster: Nobel economist

U.S. President Donald Trump at Paris Orly Airport, following the G7 Summit, in Orly, France, June 17, 2026. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

On Wednesday, June 17, U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian remotely signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the U.S./Iran war — an agreement that, many critics argue, gives Iran way too much power. Liberal economist Paul Krugman, in his Substack column, describes the deal as a "surrender" on Trump's part that is unlikely to save Republicans from a blue wave in the 2026 midterms.

"There is no mystery about Trump's surrender: He's desperate to end the war because he is paying a steep political price for high gasoline prices, and the midterms are only four and one-half months away," Krugman argues. "But can Trump rehabilitate his standing with American voters by throwing in the towel? Probably not, for both economic and political reasons. I would argue that there are four points of slippage between Trump's political goals and what is likely to happen."

Those "points of slippage," according to Krugman, are: (1) "the state of" the Strait of Hormuz, (2) "rockets and feathers," (3) "prices beyond gasoline," and (4) "the cost of broken promises."

With "rockets and feathers," Krugman is referring to a "well-documented pattern" in which "the price of gasoline responds to changes in the price of crude oil."

"When there is a global shock that causes the price of crude oil to soar," the former New York Times columnist explains, "gasoline prices rise like a rocket. But when the crisis is over and crude prices plunge, the price of gas declines only gradually — it drifts down like feathers. Will that happen this time? Gasoline and, to a lesser extent, diesel, have fallen considerably in price from their peak…. Crude oil prices are $10-$15 a barrel higher than they were pre-war, which would point to gasoline prices $0.25-$0.37 higher per gallon. Yet gasoline is currently almost $1 a gallon higher than it was before the war. So, if the 'rockets and feathers' pattern continues to apply, gasoline prices will be elevated for months to come, thwarting Trumpist hopes of quick political relief from capitulating to Iran."

Krugman emphasizes that "soaring prices" go way beyond the cost of gas itself, affecting the cost of a variety of goods and products. And voters, according to the economist, will be thinking about those prices as the 2026 midterms draw closer.

"I would add that it may be especially hard for the Trumpists to make the case that things have turned around when they were never willing to admit that anything was wrong in the first place, insisting, even as prices soared, that we were living in a 'golden age,'" Krugman writes. "So, will Trump's surrender to Iran rescue him and his party from a blue wave in November? It's very unlikely. I suggest they find themselves some lifejackets."

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