GOP anxiety is growing in this 'solid red' MAGA stronghold

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) was delighted when Barack Obama, in the 2008 presidential election, won Iowa by roughly 9.5 percent. And Obama carried Iowa by roughly 6 percent when he was reelected in 2012.

But Iowa took a decidedly Republican turn after that. President Donald Trump won Iowa in 2016, 2020 and 2024. Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds is a Republican, as are both of the midwestern state's U.S. senators: Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst, who isn't seeking reelection in the 2026 midterms.

According to New York Times reporter Julie Bosman, however, GOP insiders are growing increasingly worried about Iowa's 2026 gubernatorial race. And a major source of their anxiety is Democrat Rob Sand, who is running for governor .

Bosman, in an article published on May 8, explains, "In recent election cycles, Iowa has turned solid red, with Republicans occupying the governor's mansion for the last 15 years, dominating both chambers of the State Legislature and filling all six of the state's seats in Congress, and with President Trump winning reelection there in 2024 by more than 13 percentage points…. Yet the governor's race in November is shaping up to be an unusually competitive one."

Reynolds isn't seeking reelection, and Republican insiders, according to Bosman, fear that Sand may have what it takes to go the distance.

"So far, Mr. Sand has accumulated a formidable war chest: In 2025, his campaign amassed $9.5 million, outraising all of his Republican opponents combined," Bosman reports. "And in a midterm election year when polls suggest that President Trump is sinking in popularity, national Democrats see Mr. Sand as a candidate with a real chance to win. They also see his practical-sounding pitch that spurns strict partisanship as a test of how to broaden the party's appeal."

Bosman notes that in April, the Cook Political Report moved Iowa's gubernatorial race from "leans conservative" to "tossup."

Sand is running as a centrist, and Megan Goldberg — who teaches political science at Cornell College in Mount Vernon, Iowa — cautions that he needs to avoid coming across as overly partisan on the campaign trail.

Goldberg told the Times, "He's certainly trying to make the race a referendum on how the state is going at the moment…. He's not even talking about Republicans. But if he starts saying, 'Hey, this is Gov. Reynolds' fault — this is President Trump's fault,' and you identify as a Republican, you feel attacked."