U.S. President Donald Trump gestures next to U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), on the day of a closed House Republican Conference meeting on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 20, 2025. REUTERS/Ken Cedeno
The U.S. government shutdown has disrupted the release of critical economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is essential for assessing inflation trends. The September CPI report, released on Friday, revealed that inflation rose to 3.0 percent year-over-year, up from 2.9 percent in August, primarily due to a 4.1 percent increase in gasoline prices. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained steady at 3.0 percent.
In an article for Salon published Sunday, writer Heather Digby Parton argued that inflation has become a "ticking time bomb" for Republicans, threatening to undermine their political standing despite claims of economic strength.
Parton wrote that while official statistics show inflation has decreased to 2.4 percent as of October 2024, public perception remains negative.
Factors such as rising beef prices and the symbolic impact of egg price spikes due to avian flu contribute to widespread dissatisfaction, even as some costs stabilize.
Parton highlighted that many voters, particularly those who remember the economic conditions of Trump's first term, are disillusioned by unmet promises to reduce living costs.
Despite Trump's assertions that tariffs have strengthened the economy, polling indicates that inflation is his lowest-rated issue, with approval ratings in the mid-30s and declining. The administration's trade policies, including the imposition of tariffs, have led to higher consumer prices, contradicting claims of economic improvement.
Economist Paul Krugman is cited in the article, noting that the economy appears stagnant, with businesses hesitant to invest amid uncertain trade policies. The government's shutdown has further delayed the release of comprehensive economic data, leaving the job market's status unclear.
The Consumer Price Index for September showed a 3 percent annual increase, the fastest pace since the beginning of the year, suggesting that inflation may be rising again.
Parton noted that the disconnect between economic indicators and public perception presents a significant challenge for Republicans.
She asserted that even Trump's persistent messaging cannot overcome the negative "vibes" felt by voters who are experiencing higher costs and stagnant wages. The situation, she argued, is a "perfect storm" of the administration's own making.