How Congress’ 'dwindling calendar' could spell doom for GOP leaders: analysis

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U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) holds a press conference following the GOP weekly policy lunch on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., December 9, 2025. REUTERS/Annabelle Gordon

When Donald Trump returned to the White House on January 20, he enjoyed Republican majorities in both branches of Congress. The Republican majority in the U.S. Senate confirmed most of Trump's controversial nominees, and Trump had enough votes in both the Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives to get his Big, Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 narrowly passed despite strong opposition from Democratic lawmakers.

But it remains to be seen which parties will control Congress after the 2026 midterms.

In a column published on December 15, MS NOW's Hayes Brown stresses that a failure to set "deadlines" for legislation and stick to them is a major political liability for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota).

"Congress works best on a deadline," Brown argues. "The need to have the threat of impending doom looming before anything can get done is honestly one of the most relatable things about America's lawmakers. But the dwindling calendar is doing little to spur the legislative branch into action on some major issues. If this Monday is included, there are four legislative days until the Obamacare subsidies lapse and 16 legislative days before the federal government plunges into another shutdown."

The MS NOW columnist cites December 31, 2025 and January 30, 2026 as two crucial days for Johnson and Thune.

"Two dates ought to be circled in red on the calendars of House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D.," Brown explains. " December 31 is when a set of expanded Affordable Care Act subsidies expire. Without new legislation, health-care costs will skyrocket for millions of their members' constituents. January 30 is the expiration date of the short-term funding bill lawmakers passed to reopen the government in November. Absent another continuing resolution or an appropriations bill for the rest of the fiscal year, we'll find ourselves right back in another shutdown."

Brown doubts that GOP lawmakers will fund Obamacare subsidies before the December 31 "deadline."

"There's always a chance that Johnson and Thune will cancel scheduled breaks and keep their members working," Brown writes. "But don't count on a Christmas miracle."

Hayes Brown's full MS NOW column is available at this link.

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