These Dem-leaning suburbs could make or break Harris in must-win PA: analysis

09 September 2024

When the Associated Press and other major media outlets called Pennsylvania for Joe Biden in 2020, the Democratic nominee officially became president-elect. Now, four years later, it comes as no surprise that Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris are spending a great deal of time in Pennsylvania — as both campaigns consider it a must-win state.

Pennsylvania, the consummate swing state, is very complex politically. Philadelphia is deep blue; the city hasn't had a Republican mayor since Bernhard Samuel left office on January 7, 1952. Yet rural areas of the Keystone State, often jokingly described as "Pennsyltucky," are much more GOP-friendly. And some of Pennsylvania's suburban areas, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer, have become increasingly Democrat-friendly.

In an article published by the Inquirer on September 9, reporters Aliya Schneider and Aseem Shukla emphasize that turnout in the Pennsylvania suburbs could make or break Harris' presidential campaign.

Philly's suburbs of Montgomery, Bucks and Delaware Counties, in contrast to Philly Proper, were great for former Gov. Tom Ridge, Sen. Arlen Specter and other GOP moderates during the 1990s. But they have been trending more Democratic in recent years.

In their article, Schneider and Shukla detail Democratic efforts to make inroads in the suburbs of Harrisburg. They specifically mention Cumberland County, which still leans Republican but isn't as Republican as it once was.

"The Philadelphia suburbs have gained attention for becoming increasingly Democratic in recent years and helping President Joe Biden win in 2020," Schneider and Shukla report, "but an Inquirer analysis of election results shows that smaller cities' suburbs are also key to either party's chances of winning the White House in November…. While Trump is still favored to win Cumberland County, which is majority Republican and largely rural and suburban, Vice President Kamala Harris' ability to continue her party's gains in areas like Lower Allen will be a critical factor to watch."

The reporters note that the GOP "still has a strong presence in the Harrisburg area."

"West of Lower Allen, Trump signs are prominently displayed in Downtown Carlisle, the county seat, including outside the county Republican committee headquarters," Schneider and Shukla explain. "At the nearby Democratic headquarters, residents walked in on a recent Monday afternoon to put their names on a list for Harris-Walz lawn signs, which had not yet arrived. Party officials are hoping to mobilize their base — and attract independents and persuadable Republicans."

Matt Roan, chairman of the Cumberland County Democratic Committee, told the Inquirer, "We often say to voters, 'This isn't your father's Republican Party'…. Kamala Harris may not win Cumberland County, but if she loses by five instead of 10, it's going to go a long way towards delivering Pennsylvania for the Democratic ticket.

Read the full Philadelphia Inquirer article at this link (subscription required).

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