Conservative predicts Harris victory — while GOP suffers 'bad night in the House'

05 November 2024

The 2024 election will not only determine who the next U.S. president will be — it will also decide which party controls the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives.

In his National Review column, conservative Charles C.W. Cooke argues that Vice President Kamala Harris is going into the election with an "advantage" over former President Donald Trump — while Democrats stand to lose their Senate majority.

"If pushed," Cooke writes, "I would predict that Harris will take the three 'blue wall' states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin — and possibly Georgia and North Carolina, too. I expect Arizona to go for Trump, and probably Nevada, too, but I could also see both going the other way."

Cooke continues, "That being so, I suspect that Republicans will have a mediocre night in the Senate and a bad night in the House. This would likely mean that the GOP would win three new Senate seats — West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio — but fail everywhere else, and spectacularly so in Arizona….. The House will be close, but, unlike the Senate, I think it will tilt to the Democrats, who will gain a majority of between five and ten. We may not know the final House results in particular for quite some time."

In Arizona's U.S. Senate race, GOP nominee Kari Lake, according to polls, is likely to lose to Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Arizona).

Quite possibly, Cooke adds, Harris will be sworn in as president in January 2025 — but with Republicans in control of the U.S. Senate.

"If I'm right," Cooke says, "Kamala Harris will enter office as the first president in 32 years whose party does not have full control of the federal government."

Read Charles C.W. Cooke's full National Review column at this link.

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