FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speak during a tour of the Federal Reserve Board building, which is currently undergoing renovations, in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 24, 2025. REUTERS/Kent Nishimura/File Photo
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), unemployment in the United States was at 4.2 percent in July — which is far from a recession. But the BLS also found that the U.S. is hurting in terms of job creation; the 4.2 percent figure largely reflects Americans who are holding on to jobs they already have rather than starting new jobs. And President Donald Trump was so angry over the BLS' job creation data that he fired ex-BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and nominated a MAGA loyalist for the position: E.J. Antoni, known for his work with the Heritage Foundation.
In an article published on August 16, Axios' Courtenay Brown lays out some reasons why so many Americans are feeling "gloomy" about the economy.
"Americans haven't been this gloomy about the job market since the Great Recession," Brown reports. "Why it matters: Fears about joblessness have surged since President Trump unveiled plans to impose steep tariffs on foreign goods. The economy might have hit a soft patch, but it has so far dodged the bleak predictions from a few months ago."
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Nonetheless, Brown notes that "consumers are still bracing for the worst to come."
"As of early August," Brown explains, "that pessimism was in step with that of the 2008 financial crisis. About 62 percent of consumers believe unemployment will worsen in the year ahead, according to the University of Michigan's latest monthly survey. That's bounced around a little in the last few months, but consistently hung around levels not seen since the Great Recession…. The concerns about higher unemployment are paired with worries about an inflation resurgence."
The University of Michigan's consumer report was released on August 15.
Joanne Hsu, the report's director, is quoted as saying, "Although CPI inflation has not surged, our data show that consumers are still bracing for an increase in inflation to come. Moreover, consumers are also concerned that labor markets will weaken."
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Brown notes that The Great Recession was the United States' "worst economic downturn since the Great Depression."
When the stock market crashed in 1929, U.S. unemployment was only 3.2 percent, according to Investopedia. By 1932, it was up to 23 percent. Americans were so angry about the economy that year that Democratic presidential nominee Franklin Delano Roosevelt defeated incumbent GOP President Herbert Hoover by a landslide and picked up a whopping 472 electoral votes.
The Great Recession wasn't as severe as The Great Depression, but Brown recalls that in late 2008 and 2009, "The stock market was falling off a cliff, unemployment filings soared and the jobless rate would ultimately peak at 10 percent."
Brown continues, "Now: The economy is slowing, though fears are worse than the official data suggests so far. The unemployment rate is holding at a historically low 4.2 percent, as of July. Hiring has stalled, but so have layoffs. There are fewer unemployment filings now than in July 2021, when a record-low share of Americans (14 percent) said they anticipated higher unemployment in the year ahead."
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Read Courtenay Brown's full report for Axios at this link.