U.S. President Donald Trump arrives at Joint Base Andrews, U.S., May 3, 2026. REUTERS/Nathan Howard
President Donald Trump is so unpopular right now, he is heading toward a historic defeat in the upcoming midterm elections, a longtime Republican strategist recently argued.
“Donald Trump's poll numbers and his coalition are falling apart,” Steve Schmidt, who advised the previous Republican chief executive President George W. Bush said in a Tuesday Substack post. “It's simply staggering — unprecedented, even. Across the entire coalition, his voters are running. The Trump catastrophe is starting to land, and it's starting to be felt at the gas pumps. Everything is going to get more expensive, not less expensive, as the summer rolls on. Because Trump's war in Iran — the war of choice that he's losing — the impact of it? Well, we haven't even begun to start feeling it.”
Schmidt ticked off other midterm elections that historically went poorly for the incumbent, even more so than is usually the case, such as in 1974 (when President Richard Nixon resigned because of the Watergate scandal), 1994 (when President Bill Clinton lost control of both houses of Congress due to the so-called “Gingrich Revolution”) and 2006 (when President George W. Bush suffered historic losses due to the unpopular Iraq War).
“In 2026, there will be a tsunami that outdoes them all,” Schmidt predicted. “In Ohio, we're going to see a Democratic governor and the return of Sherrod Brown to the United States Senate. In the state of Iowa, we're going to see a Democratic governor and a Democratic senator. And it's not just there. David Jolly in Florida has an outstanding chance to be the governor of the state. Lindsey Graham — a bloodthirsty wacko with no principles whatsoever, whatsoever — can be defeated in South Carolina.”
After quoting Trump saying that he may not leave office when his term expires in 2029, Schmidt added that “that's what the election is about: people who revere the Constitution, as opposed to revering or fearing Donald Trump.” Although Trump and his supporters insist he is doing a great job, “when the American people get to say, ‘Hey, how's he doing after two years in power?,’ and the answer to that question is found in the polls.”
He concluded that Trump has “the lowest net approval ratings ever for the president of the United States. That is approval minus disapproval. The lowest previous record, according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll, was Trump at 24 points underwater — and that was all the way back in term number one.”
Other political experts have also noted that Trump is suffering in the polls. According to The Hill’s Julia Mueller and Caroline Vakil, “President Trump’s surging disapproval rating is threatening to become a liability for downballot Republicans as the party looks to keep its fragile GOP trifecta in November. An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll released Sunday found the president at a new high in his disapproval — 62 percent — while 37 percent said they approved of his job helming of the country.”
They added, “On Trump’s handling of the cost of living and inflation, 76 percent and 72 percent disapproved, respectively. In addition, 66 percent of respondents said they disapprove of how Trump is handling the Iran war. The polling, coupled with low marks he’s received in similar surveys, risk jeopardizing GOP candidates in an election cycle already shaping up to look like the 2018 midterms fueled by anti-Trump sentiment.”
Because Trump is so determined to keep control of Congress, some experts worry that he will try to steal the midterm elections.
Robert Kagan, a conservative historian who has written extensively about American foreign policy, warned CNN’s Christiane Amanpour in February that President Donald Trump is likely to meddle in the 2026 midterm elections and in so doing take America “one big step into dictatorship.”
“I am worried, as I have said and others have been pointing out, about whether we will even have free and fair elections in 2026, let alone in 2028,” Kagan told Amanpour. “I think Trump has a plan to disrupt those elections, and I don't think he's willing to allow Democrats to take control of one or both houses as could happen in a free election.”