Data guru says 'unlikeliest' midterm battleground could end 94-year trend

President Donald Trump's toxic approval ratings have turned many surprising states into midterm battlegrounds, and according to NBC News's top data guru, this year's "unlikeliest" battleground is indeed a very real competition and could end up breaking a 94-year trend.

Steve Kornacki, best known for his data-driven coverage of election results and polling, published his latest analysis for the network on Tuesday morning, breaking down why the Senate battle in Kansas between incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton has become a "surprisingly tight contest," despite the fact that the Sunflower State has not "elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, and... has sided with every GOP presidential nominee since 1968."

While reliable polling still gives the edge to Marshall, his lead is now perilously thin for a Republican in a longtime red state.

"And yet, a New York Times/Siena poll over the weekend gives Marshall, who has faced scrutiny over his residency status, a scant edge of 1 percentage point, 47 percent to 46 percent," Kornacki explained. "The national implications of a Hamilton win would be enormous, dramatically increasing the likelihood of Democrats’ regaining control of the Senate. (Remember, the party needs a net gain of four seats to win the majority, which means it has to successfully defend every seat Democrats currently possess and flip four more.)"

Kornacki warned, however, that recent history provides notable evidence that this seemingly competitive race might be an illusion. In 2014, he explained, Democrats backed independent Senate candidate Greg Orman against incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts. While Orman enjoyed a narrow lead heading into the midterms that year, Roberts ultimately prevailed by a whopping 12 points. Roberts later retired and backed Marshall in 2020, with the latter going on to win by 11 points despite polling only 4 points ahead.

"That having been said, the political climate does appear more favorable to Democrats now than in either of those elections," Kornacki added. "Roberts was boosted by what proved to be a national GOP tide in ’14, when Barack Obama was president and facing a low approval rating in Kansas. And Marshall in ’20 shared the ticket with Donald Trump, who had a 51 percent approval rating in the state and carried it easily in his re-election campaign. But in the new NYT/Siena poll, Trump’s approval is just 40 percent in Kansas."

He continued: "While it has remained a reliably Republican state in federal elections, Kansas has gotten a shade less red during the Trump era, thanks to a handful of counties where Democrats have made inroads. Back in 2012, the last pre-Trump election, Mitt Romney handily won it by 22 points over Obama. In his three campaigns, Trump has won by 21 points in 2016, 14 in ’20 and 16 in ’24. The state also twice elected a Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, in 2018 and 2022."