GOP pollster details 'biggest tell' MAGA 'knows they’re losing'

On Thursday, August 6, three GOP senators — Alabama's Tommy Tuberville, Missouri's Josh Hawley and Indiana's Jim Banks — filed an amendment designed to protect state laws that prohibit "biological men" from competing in women's sports. Hawley, in a statement, declared, "Biological men should never be allowed in women’s sports or women's locker rooms. We've got to make sure state laws protecting women stand." But according to conservative strategist/pollster Sarah Longwell, anti-transgender measures aren't really aimed at protecting female athletes, but rather, underscore the desperation that Republicans are feeling with the 2026 midterms less than three months away.

In a biting Wednesday, August 12 post on X, formerly Twitter, Longwell wrote, "The biggest tell that MAGA knows they're losing on every issue, failing at governance, and generally losing public support? They suddenly are wall-to-wall on trans sports."

The U.S. Senate measure from Tuberville, Hawley and Banks isn't the only recent example of Republicans focusing on transgender Americans and women's sports. In Arizona, GOP lawmakers are aggressively promoting Proposition 318 — which is being dubbed "Protect Girls Sports in Arizona" and threatens schools and athletic associations with civil lawsuits if they allow transgender girls to join female teams.

According to Longwell, all these anti-trans efforts from the GOP show how worried Republicans are about the midterms.

Although Longwell is a prominent figure on the right, she is very much in the Never Trump camp and has become an unlikely ally of Democrats in recent years —supporting Joe Biden in 2020 and rooting for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris four years later in 2024.

In addition to being a founder of the conservative website The Bulwark, the 46-year-old Longwell is the founder of the group Republican Accountability (RA) — formerly the Republican Accountability Project (RAP) and, before that, Republican Voters Against Trump (RVAT). Longwell's group has often been compared to The Lincoln Project, another group founded by Never Trump conservatives. But Longwell's group and The Lincoln Project are separate despite having a lot of ground common ground and a mutual disdain for Trump.

During her frequent appearances on MS NOW (formerly MSNBC), Longwell has often argued that President Donald Trump and the far-right MAGA movement are antithetical to the principles traditionally embraced by Republicans and Libertarians.

Trump continues to suffer from weak approval ratings in poll after poll. An Economist/YouGov poll released on Monday, August 10, for example, found approval of Trump at only 33 percent. And a Reuters poll released earlier in the month showed Trump's approval at 35 percent.