House Speaker Mike Johnson shakes hands with President Donald Trump at the White House in Washington, D.C., July 4, 2025. REUTERS/Leah Millis
As the GOP's midterms wipeout becomes more and more apparent with each passing day, a new report from Punchbowl News found the major power brokers in Washington D.C., are already preparing for Democrats to seize power in the near future.
"K Street" is a road in Washington renowned as the central hub of the political lobbying system in the U.S., with the term essentially being synonymous with the industry. In a report released Friday morning, Punchbowl News revealed that "nearly all" K Street leaders now believe that Democrats will retake the House majority in the upcoming midterms. This was based on the findings of its most recent Canvass Survey, in which 91 percent of K Street respondents said that a flip in the House is coming.
Accordingly, this broadly accepted expectation is already being accounted for in the lobbying industry's near-term planning, with some even keeping in mind the possibility that the GOP's majority could crumble before the midterms even take place.
"The broad agreement is already influencing how Congress approaches spending, policy and relationships ahead of a potential shift in power," Punchbowl explained. "There’s also skepticism about whether Republicans can even maintain their grip on the House before this session ends. Just over half of K Street leaders said it’s likely Republicans will lose their majority before the new Congress is sworn in."
The survey did not make mention of the expectations for the Senate, though other polls have increasingly found that the chamber is now a toss-up for the midterms. Punchbowl did note that K-Street leaders expect Democrat Graham Platner to prevail in the Maine Senate race, and Republican John Cornyn to carry the heated Texas race, though by a slimmer margin.
The GOP currently has a razor-thin two-seat majority in the House, boasting 217 seats, plus one independent who caucuses with the party, against 214 Democrats, meaning that the party can only ever lose one vote on any given bill. There are also serious concerns about the majority lasting until November, given how much it has already shrunk since 2024 due to resignations and deaths.
Congress has seen a historically large wave of retirement announcements, as the chaos of President Donald Trump's return has reportedly made the job too much to handle for some. Republicans have been especially eager to jump ship so far, representing 36 out of the 52 announced retirements.
Many of these departing lawmakers plan to serve out the remainder of their current terms, leaving the current House makeup unchanged for the time being. Some, however, have departed early, further eroding the GOP's majority.