Global food prices were already 'soaring' — and the Ukraine crisis will make them even worse

Food prices were soaring long before Russia invaded Ukraine, but the invasion is causing them to increase even more. Journalists Eddy Wax and Gabriela Galindo, in a listicle published by Politico on March 15, lay out five ways in which the conflict will have a major impact on the global food system.

The COVID-19 pandemic has played a big role in soaring food prices. COVID-19 has been the world’s worst health crisis since the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 and 1919; according to Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, COVID-19 has killed more than 6 million people worldwide — including over 966,000 in the United States. And the pandemic has made food distribution more difficult.

Now, in addition to facing to the worst health crisis in over 100 years, the world is seeing the worst conflict in Europe since World War 2.

“Guess from where the U.N. World Food Programme sourced more than half of its supplies for the hungry across the globe in 2021? Yes, Ukraine,” Wax and Galindo write. “When this ‘breadbasket of Europe’ is knocked out of supply chains and aid networks, the world is going to feel it. The war between Russia and Ukraine, both food-producing powerhouses, has already sent prices for cereals like wheat soaring and European governments scrambling to stabilize markets.”

The journalists continue, “Europe can probably weather the immediate storm. Its farmers are bracing for even higher costs of basic inputs like fertilizers and animal feed, but consumers are unlikely to see empty supermarket shelves. Costs will go up — particularly for key goods like sunflower oil — but rich Western economies can afford to diversify. The picture is more alarming in the developing world, where countries especially in the Middle East and North Africa — already stricken by droughts — could face much higher prices for basic foodstuffs like bread. And if people go hungry or can't feed their families, political instability would likely follow.”

Wax and Galindo go on to lay out five ways in which the Ukraine/Russia war will affect the global food system: (1) “soaring food prices,” (2) “fears of famine,” (3) “rising protectionism,” (4) “green dreams dashed,” and (5) “sunflower shutdown.”

“Ukraine is a gigantic exporter of commodities like wheat, corn and sunflower oil, but Russia’s invasion means all trade has stopped because ships cannot leave Black Sea ports,” Wax and Galindo observe. “That is already having a major impact, with the price of grain and oilseeds surging to record highs as traders worry about how long this disruption will last.”

Countries that are “staggeringly dependent on Ukraine and Russia” for food, according to Wax and Galindo, include Morocco, Egypt and Algeria in North Africa and Lebanon in the Middle East.

“But it’s not just the countries directly dependent on Ukraine or Russia that have reason to worry,” the journalists warn. “Rising food prices globally will impact all the poorest and least food-secure countries, from Bangladesh and Madagascar to Yemen. Grain prices soared by 50% in the first two weeks of the conflict, according to Matin Qaim, professor of agricultural economics at the University of Bonn.”

A shortage of Ukrainian sunflower oil, Wax and Galindo warn, is bound to cause price increases in Europe.

“The EU imports half of Ukraine’s production of sunflower oil, which can be found in everything from baked, canned and pre-made foods, to spreads, sauces and soups,” the journalists note. “It is also widely used in confectionary products and is an ingredient that is difficult to replace in baby food.”