George Will explains why 'strange' Nevada may decide US Senate control

07 August 2024

Democratic strategists are hoping that if Vice President Kamala Harris and her presidential running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, defeat the Donald Trump/J.D. Vance ticket in November, there will be a down-ballot effect that enables Democrats to maintain control of the U.S. Senate and flip the U.S. House of Representatives (where Republicans have a small majority under the leadership of Speaker Mike Johnson).

Democrats have pretty much given up on keeping the U.S. Senate seat presently held by Sen. Joe Manchin in deep red West Virginia, where Republican Jim Justice had a 33 percent lead over Democrat Glenn Elliott in a Kaplan Strategies poll released in June. But the Democratic National Committee (DNC) is keeping its fingers crossed about Senate races in Ohio, Montana, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada.

In his August 7 column for the Washington Post, Never Trump conservative George Will offers some reasons why, in November, "strange" Nevada may decide control of the U.S. Senate.

"It is one of five swing states — including Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — with more-or-less competitive Senate contests," Will, now 83, explains. "The incumbent, Democrat Jacky Rosen, 67, is seeking a second term. Her Republican opponent is Sam Brown, 40, a retired Army captain severely scarred by third-degree burns over a third of his body, including his face, from an improvised explosive device in Afghanistan. Their race epitomizes the uncertainties created by Joe Biden's withdrawal, and the difficulty of taking Nevada's political temperature."

Polls are showing a close Senate race in Nevada, where Rosen leads Brown by 3 percent in a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll released on August 6.

Will stresses, however, that Nevada can be a difficult state to gauge politically.

"This is a strange state, and not just because its biggest industry is what locals call 'gaming,' and what, until relatively recently, most Americans considered sinful," Will observes. "Las Vegas' Clark County contains 70 percent of Nevadans. More than 80 percent of the state's land is owned by the federal government."

The veteran conservative columnist continues, "Las Vegas is a 24-hour town, and voters can be difficult for public opinion pollsters to reach by phone. This is a booming city of transients, with many people moving in and a substantial number moving on…. In 2022, half of Nevada voters had registered since 2016; newcomers do not know Rosen well."

George Will's full Washington Post column is available at this link (subscription required).

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