Gen-Z voter turnout could give Democrats a vital edge: report

Over the years, liberals and progressives have often been disappointed when the youth vote didn't materialize to the degree they hoped. In 1972, Democratic strategists hoped that youth turnout would give their presidential nominee, George McGovern, a huge victory; instead, Richard Nixon was reelected by a landslide.

But when the youth vote really does materialize, it can be an important boost for Democrats. Politico's Stephen Shepard, in a report published on May 18, examines the role that Millennial and Gen-Z turnout played in the 2018, 2020 and 2022 elections — and finds that it was definitely helpful for them.

Drawing on data by the Democratic research firm Catalist, Shepard reports that in 2022, "young voters…. bested 2018 turnout levels in states with the most competitive races for governor or Senate — and they overwhelmingly favored Democratic candidates, even if the overall political environment swung to the right."

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"The Catalist report finds that Democrats increased their support among women voters over 2020," Shepard observes. "Abortion is cited as a key factor in that shift…. (Catalist data) mostly suggests that close, high-turnout elections continue to be the norm since Donald Trump's election in 2016. Both sides are highly activated to participate in both presidential elections and years in between. That means we could be headed to another year of record or near-record voter turnout in 2024, even if both candidates wind up being unpopular."

Shepard notes five key "takeaways" from Catalist data for 2022: (1) "Democrats won the most competitive races thanks to turnout," (2) "Despite history, young voters showed up," (3) "Women voters propelled Democrats in contested races," (4) "Democrats actually made limited inroads with non-college voters," and (5) Democrats are facing "a warning sign with Black voters," whose loyalty shows "signs of fraying."

READ MORE: Republicans have declared all-out war on younger voters: voting rights organizer

Politico's entire report can be found at this link.