Frank Luntz in the spin room after a CNN Republican presidential debate at the Olmsted Center at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa on January 10, 2024 (Gage Skidmore/Flickr)
In the 2024 presidential election, there were two very different types of Donald Trump voters. Trump's hardcore MAGA voters were behind him from the get-go, while many independents and swing voters — some of whom had voted for Joe Biden in 2020 — were feeling frustrated over the economy, especially inflation, and were willing to give Trump a chance. And those swing voters, according to GOP pollster Frank Luntz, will decide the outcome of the 2026 midterms.
Luntz told National Public Radio (NPR), "How they vote is how America will vote…. This 7 percent of America that goes back and forth and not just back and forth between Republicans and Democrats — they'll vote for an independent candidate and they may not even vote. And that is the margin of success in the states and districts that matter."
According to NPR's Tamara Keith, two Biden-to-Trump voters in the Atlanta suburbs — both Black men — underscore the complexities of the midterms.
Brothers Gerald and Wally both voted for Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024. But while Gerald is very happy with Trump and gives him an "A++" for his job performance, Wally is bitterly disappointed and gives him an F.
Wally told NPR, "Like, what do we have that we can hang our hat on right now? We have higher gas prices."
Keith reports, "Gerald and Wally are among a dozen swing voters in swing states who have agreed to regularly speak with NPR over the next three years as part of a project we are calling Swing Shift…. The participants live in swing states and don't always vote for the same party. Most of them voted for Biden in 2020 and then Trump in 2024. A couple swung in the other direction. At some point in the past decade, they have all voted for Trump…. In a polarized country, these are the people who help decide elections."
The NPR reporter adds, "The goal is to really get to know these voters and how the issues dominating the national political conversation are playing out in their daily lives. Their stories are the stories of a critical piece of the electorate…. Gerald and Wally are the first Swing Shift voters we visited at home. Their reasons for supporting Trump and their views of his performance now couldn't be more different."