Florida in play? Biden and strategists say yes as court puts abortion, marijuana on ballot

01 April 2024

Could Democrats win Florida in November?

The Florida state Supreme Court on Monday approved two measures to appear on the ballot in the November presidential election: the right to abortion, and recreational marijuana, both strong pulls for Democrats.

Putting abortion on the ballot comes after Florida Republican lawmakers have made abortion practically illegal in the Sunshine State.

“The Florida Supreme Court simultaneously upholds the state’s 15-week abortion ban (which lets the six-week ban take effect, too)—but also approves a ballot initiative that would amend the FL constitution to protect abortion,” reports Slate’s Mark Joseph Stern.

“DeSantis’ six-week abortion ban is about to become law in Florida, and the GOP will need to spend the next seventh months defending it against a ballot initiative that would enshrine reproductive rights in the state constitution,” Stern adds. “Florida’s 2024 election will be about abortion.”

The Washington Post concurs.

“The ruling could give Democrats a boost in the polls in a state that used to be a toss-up in presidential elections. While many voters aren’t enthusiastic about a rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, it could inspire more abortion rights advocates to cast a ballot. Trump won Florida four years ago.”

On the marijuana issue, the Post explains, “Voters will decide whether to allow companies that grow and sell medical marijuana to sell it to adults over 21 for any reason. The ballot measure also would make possession of marijuana for personal use legal.”

Each ballot measure requires 60 percent to pass.

Republican Governor Ron DeSantis won re-election in a landslide in 2022, with nearly 60 percent of the vote – but his failed 2024 presidential bid damaged his brand. DeSantis isn’t on the ballot this fall, but Donald Trump is. Florida certainly is Trump territory, but the ex-president’s four criminal indictments and his own behavior have also tarnished his brand. Two polls in March of Florida voters found Trump beating Biden, but both only by mid-single digits – and both with less than a majority of voters.

Also on the ballot, Florida U.S. Senator Rick Scott, who is barely beating his Democratic challenger in a March poll by just 3 points, according to FiveThirtyEight.

President Biden has been campaigning and fundraising in Florida. Last month the campaign launched Latinos con Biden-Harris in South Florida, and is launching TV ads aimed at the Hispanic community, Florida Politics reported.

Late Monday afternoon NBC News, citing the issue of abortion, reported: “Biden campaign says it sees Florida as ‘winnable’ in 2024.”

Some political commentators are reacting, suggesting Florida could be in play.

“This is election-changing news. Florida should now be considered a toss-up, or better,” writes liberal commentator Bob Cesca.

Florida Politics publisher Peter Schorsch put it another way:

Former federal and state prosecutor, former Republican and former DeSantis administration official Ron Filipkowski says: “Florida Repubs are the dog who caught the car on the abortion issue. And the marijuana issue is going to turn out tons of people who have never voted before. These people won’t show up in polling either,” he observes.

Filipkowski, editor-in-chief of MeidasTouch.com adds, Florida Republicans “who aren’t in ultra safe districts all have their seats in play now.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, or “D triple C,” immediately put out a statement calling the abortion ballot initiative a “political nightmare” for Republican U.S. Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and María Elvira Salazar.

“The ballot initiative’s petition got nearly one million certified signatures, with more than 150,000 of them from registered Republicans,” the DCCC said.

“Floridians know that Luna and Salazar can’t be trusted to defend their rights,” added DCCC Spokesperson Lauryn Fanguen. “While voters were mourning the loss of Roe v. Wade, Luna and Salazar were celebrating the decision that has now led to chaos and heartbreaking stories across the country. However, Luna and Salazar certainly aren’t celebrating today – they know they’ll be held accountable for their anti-abortion records in November.”

The Atlantic’s David Frum, a former Bush White House speech writer, observed: “Florida’s Supreme Court just added another proof point to my prediction in April 2023 that 2024 will be a bad GOP year up and down the ticket.”

“Republicans in Florida are going to be defending a six week abortion ban this November. It polls in the low 20s,” added political strategist Simon Rosenberg.

The Lincoln Project’s Rick Wilson, an advertising expert, noted: “Florida just got a lot more expensive for the GOP.”

MSNBC and NBC News political analyst Susan Del Percio, a Republican, says Florida will be in play.

And Democratic strategist Greg Pinelo says Florida is now in play.

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