Krugman delivers economic reality check: Trump’s mass deportations will make grocery prices soar

11 November 2024

Donald Trump, during his 2024 presidential campaign, attacked the Biden Administration and Vice President Kamala Harris relentlessly over inflation.

Harris countered that Trump's proposals — mass deportations and new tariffs on imported goods — would make inflation worse. Regardless, President-elect Trump enjoyed a decisive victory on Election Night 2024 and will begin his non-consecutive second term on January 20, 2025.

Liberal economist Paul Krugman, in his November 11 column for the New York Times, warns that grocery prices will soar if Trump follows through on his mass deportations plan.

"I've written about the likely inflationary impact of Donald Trump's policies," Krugman explains. "All of that still stands. But there's an issue that I haven't stressed as much as I probably should have: the specific effects of his proposed deportations on grocery and housing prices, both of which have been political flashpoints."

According to Krugman, Trump's "mass deportations" would "degrade productive capacity, balloon deficits and — yes — bring inflation roaring back."

"If you're upset about grocery prices now," Krugman explains, "see what happens if Trump goes after a huge part of the agricultural workforce. Immigrants are around three-quarters of agricultural workers — and roughly half of them are undocumented. And do you really doubt that many workers legally here will be caught up in Trump's threatened dragnets?"

The economist/Times columnist continues, "Undocumented immigrants also play a large role in food processing. For example, they account for an estimated 30 to 50 percent of workers in meatpacking. If these workers are deported, the food industry will probably have great difficulty replacing them. Even in the best case, the industry will have to offer much higher wages — and, of course, these higher wages will be passed on in higher prices. Oh, and while we produce most of what we eat, we also import a lot of food — whose prices would be raised by tariffs."

Paul Krugman's full New York Times column is available at this link (subscription required).

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