DC insider hints at what to expect from Trump's 'big surprise'

Last week, Trump predicted “big surprises” ahead of the midterm elections. During an appearance last Wednesday in Maryland, Trump turned to Russell Vought, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, and stated, “We have some big surprises coming up in another few weeks, right Russ?” without specifying further — thereby teasing the prospect of a big measure later in October.

I’ve asked a number of political advisers, economists, and Trump-watchers what they think Trump has in mind. I’ve grouped their responses below. Please choose one that best matches your sense of Trump’s most likely “October surprise.”

1. Nothing

Some of the people I spoke with doubted Trump had anything in mind. “He’s just playing with us,” one told me. They explained that while “October surprises” were a staple of politics decades ago, they aren’t any longer. The combination of early voting and the pervasiveness of social media make them far less likely or potent. “He wants us to worry,” said another. “Don’t let him.”

2. Even bigger promised tax cuts and direct payments

Others told me that Trump’s nod to Russell Vought, director of the O.M.B., suggests another economic benefit (bribe) in addition to the $500 checks he’s now sending to over 950,000 Americans in 30 states (supposedly refunds for overcharges under Obamacare) and the $5,000 he’s promised every adult if Republicans keep control of Congress. Several suggested he’ll double or triple these bribes, even though the U.S. can’t possibly afford them and he has no intention of implementing them.

3. “Emergency” price controls on gas, rents, and food

Others expect Trump to announce something dramatic to put a lid on the prices of necessities like gas, rents, and food. Although direct price controls are economically inefficient, hated by economists, and loathed by big corporations and Wall Street, several people told me they wouldn’t be surprised if Trump announced he’s implementing them within weeks. (He won’t follow through, of course.) He’ll blast big corporations and sound as if he and his party are on the side of average consumers and working people.

4. “Emergency” election interference

Others believe the “surprise” will be electoral interference. In a recent interview with USA Today, Trump didn’t rule out declaring a national emergency at the time of the midterms or invoking the Insurrection Act — allowing him to deploy the military during civil disorder. He’s already laid the groundwork with executive orders for new voting restrictions, directives to the Department of Homeland Security to look for noncitizens on the voting rolls, criticisms of the security of voting machines, and a raid on the home of a Somali-American member of Congress.

Robert Reich is a professor of public policy at Berkeley and former secretary of labor. His writings can be found at https://robertreich.substack.com/.