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Democrats hoping for a blue wave to help them take over the House majority in November may want to examine more than polling data. According to a study by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), Democrats lost more than 275,000 registered voters across 28 key swing districts, NOTUS reports.
“The battleground map keeps moving in Republicans’ direction, and this data shows House Democrats are running out of places to hide,” NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella told NOTUS in a statement. “Republicans are welcoming voters with open arms, expanding the electorate, and building long-term strength in swing districts while Democrats continue losing ground cycle after cycle.”
Democratic Party strategists disagree.
“Republicans are being rejected in election after election since Trump returned to the White House — and Democrats are overperforming by double digits,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Viet Shelton told NOTUS. “In primaries across the country this year, Democrats are turning out at levels consistently dwarfing the turnout in Republican primaries.”
Shelton called the NRCC’s report “cherry-picked data by the delusional hacks at the NRCC,” that “won’t change the reality on the ground: Democrats have the momentum, formidable candidates with cross-party appeal, and — most importantly — the American people on our side.”
“We will take back the House majority in November,” he vowed.
In the six years since the 2020 election, Democrats have lost 737,000 registered voters, NOTUS reports, giving the GOP a 4,000-vote advantage.
The report does not specifically state whether those Democratic voter registration losses became independent voters or Republican Party voters. Nor does it identify whether those voters left the party or moved out of the district.
NOTUS suggests that there is a “rightward lean” in those swing districts where the Democratic Party is losing registered voters. It also notes that party registration is not necessarily indicative of how voters vote in a specific election.
According to VoteHub, Democrats currently have a 75 percent chance of winning back the House of Representatives.