If November brings the type of major blue wave that Democratic strategists are hoping for, it would include not only former Vice President Joe Biden defeating President Donald Trump, but also, Democrats achieving a majority in the U.S. Senate, increasing their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and enjoying victories in an abundance of state races. And the Cook Political Report is saying that according to its analysis, Democrats are now favored to retake the U.S. Senate.
Cook’s Jessica Taylor reports, “With just over 100 days until Election Day, the political climate appears dire for Republicans across the board. President Trump is the decided underdog against former Vice President Joe Biden in our Electoral College ratings, and Democrats could end up expanding their House majority. That leaves the Senate as Republicans’ firewall — the final barrier to unified control for Democrats in 2021.”
But that “firewall,” Taylor reports, could disappear because “as of now, Democrats are a slight favorite to win the Senate majority.”
A Republican pollster, quoted anonymously, told Cook, “Something remarkable would have to happen for Republicans to still have control of the Senate after November. It’s grim. There’s just so many places where Democrats either have the upper hand or are competitive in states that six months ago, we wouldn’t have considered at risk.” And a GOP strategist was equally pessimistic, telling Cook, “If you’re an incumbent in a bad environment sitting at 44%, you should be pretty damn scared. The expanding map has made it really hard, and there’s just a lot of Democratic momentum right now.”
Taylor cited Iowa’s Joni Ernst and Arizona’s Martha McSally as some of the incumbent GOP senators who are vulnerable — McSally more so than Ernst. According to Cook’s analysis, the Arizona Senate race now falls into the “leans Democrat” category, while the race in Iowa is a “toss up.”